AE22b battleground seats
With another Assembly election on the way, and not much seeming to change in polling, are there any seats that are likely change hands? Here I have looked at May’s results and found the seats that were won by a relatively small margin. Foyle The DUP finished fewer than 100 votes ahead of the UUP after the final stage of the count in Foyle. The UUP have a chance to win this seat by convincing nationalist and non-aligned voters to transfer to them ahead of the DUP. The DUP did attract pro-life transfers from Aontú and won the majority of TUV transfers last time around. Strangford Alliance won the final seat in Strangford by 249 votes. The TUV’s Stephen Cooper actually came third on first preference votes but Alliance scooped up transfers from all over and, crucially, from the eliminated nationalist candidate’s voters. The DUP will probably field two candidates here in December and that may help the TUV by having one round fewer of Unionist transfers to be diluted. East Lond