NI Pols

The university of Liverpool had conducted a new poll. I did not cover their previous poll which was conducted just a few months after the Assembly election in 2022 due to obscure results in the data breakdown, for example it suggested that the vast majority of TUV voters would back a United Ireland. That led me to approach the poll with more caution than usual.  With polling the most important thing is to look at trends and while there are some surprising results in this poll, the trends are familiar with what we have seen since May 2022. The headline poll results are below. Note that every change is within the margin of error! The ‘par score for seats’ tells us what each party would win in PR worked perfectly. The predicted seats column considers other factors such as the nature of each constituency. My seat change predictions would see; SF gaining a seat in South Down from the SDLP, The DUP gaining seats in North Antrim and Strangford from Alliance, Alliance gaining a seat in East Lo