Constituency Focus: Foyle




Foyle is the SDLP’s strongest constituency and has historically been the base of the party, being the city of John Hume of course. While it was the centre of some of the worst times at the beginning of the Troubles community relations have improved in recent years with the Apprentice Boys parades passing off peacefully regularly. The constituency has seen a rise in dissident republican violence during recent years with Lyra McKee tragically killed while reporting on a riot just 3 years ago. The Derry Girls tv show has served to shine a positive light on the city. 

 

Current seats

The SDLP and Sinn Féin both hold 2 seats each. The final seat is held by the DUP. SDLP leader Colum Eastwood is the constituency’s MP. 

 

Current bloc quotas

Nationalism is remarkable strong in Foyle with results ranging from 68.4% to 82.5%. It makes 5 seats a real possibility. 

 

Unionism has ranged from 12.4% to 17.3%. That low score was the latest Westminster election when the SDLP regained the seat from Sinn Féin, it is very likely there was tactical voting here from Unionists to support the SDLP.  17.3% is more than a quota, but all recent results, apart from the 2019 Westminster result, would likely have seen a Unionist elected even if they did not have a quota. 

 

The non-aligned bloc has not had much success in Foyle with a low result of 1.8% and a high of 5.2%. That 5.2% did result in some council seats for Alliance. That high score for Alliance coincided with Nationalim’s low score. 

 

Recent electoral trends

Sinn Féin overtook the SDLP in 2017 but by 2019 the SDLP were comfortably ahead again culminating in a huge victory in the last Westminster election. Sinn Féin’s fortunes have gone the other way. The DUP were comfortably ahead of the UUP during the last election cycle. 

 

Candidates

The SDLP are ambitiously fielding 3 candidates; Mark H. Durkan, Sinéad McLoughlin and, Brian Tierney. Sinn Féin are defending their 2 seats with new candidates, Padraig Delargy and Ciara Ferguson. Shaun Harkin is standing for People Before Profit and Emmett Doyle is running for Aóntu. Former Aóntu councillor, Anne McCloskey is standing as an independent and Colly McLaughlin is running for the IRSP. 

 

There are 3 Unionists competing for a single seat. Incumbent Gary Middleton is standing for the DUP with former DUP member Ryan McCready representing the UUP. Elizabeth Neely is standing for the TUV. 

 

Rachel Ferguson is the Alliance candidate and Gillian Hamilton is on the ticket for the Greens. 

 

Battles

There is a feeling that the Unionist seat may be under threat. No doubt those running in the packed nationalist field are hoping to take the DUP seat. It is possible but will be difficult. The UUP are of course targeting the DUP seat knowing that they probably only need to beat the DUP on first preferences to claim the seat. 

 

Sinn Féin’s second seat is under threat here. The party clearly believes so as they took the drastic action of having their sitting MLAs stand down prior to the election and co-opting replacements. Polling would suggest Sinn Féin are likely to hold their seat but many will see Foyle as their most likely loss. On the other hand, the Nationalist field is packed and there is no one party or candidate set to benefit from a decline in Sinn Féin’s vote. This may allow Sinn Féin to balance their candidates well enough to stay ahead of the rivals. 

 

Issues

Dissident republicanism has been more prominent here than in any other part of the country over the last few years. The 3rd anniversary of Lyra McKee’s death has occurred right in the middle of this election campaign. Candidates taking a strong position against dissident groups might stand to benefit. Foyle is one of the most Catholic constituencies in Northern Ireland, Anne McCloskey finished as runner up here in 2016 running on a strongly pro-life platform. It is possible that this conservative Catholic vote may be decisive for that final Nationalist seat. 

 

Predictions 

The SDLP will hold their 2 seats comfortably but will not be anywhere near a third. Sinn Féin will hold 1 but I think they will lose the second. A Unionist should get elected and I think this may be one of the only areas where the UUP make a gain from the DUP. The final seat is a tough one to call but I think People Before Profit are probably best placed to win it. 

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