NI polling update: LucidTalk poll


 

You can see the results of the poll here, for the larger parties it is not too different to the Liverpool University poll we saw last month. The big difference is the TUV score holding at 9% which is significantly more than the Liverpool University poll.

 

Overall Unionism is up 2 points on the last LucidTalk poll with Nationalim and Others down a point each. 

 

Interesting trends:

·      Nationalism has lost ground to Alliance and the Greens

·      Alliance has lost ground to the UUP

·      The DUP has consolidated a little but remains well short of Sinn Féin

·      The poll suggests Aontú will not hurt Sinn Féin

 

What will the parties think?

·      The DUP will be frustrated that they have not improved beyond 20%

·      The TUV will be very encouraged their vote is holding

·      The SDLP look in a bad place with just 10% and a slip in the overall nationalist vote

·      Alliance have slipped but will still be very happy with at least 5 gains very likely. 

 

The problem with polling at this stage is that it is very difficult to gauge the popularity of independents. The sample sizes in individual constituencies is so small that it would lead to such a high margin of error.  There are 4 very high profile independent candidates standing in this election. Alex Easton and Claire Sugden were elected as MLAs in 2017 and have a strong chance of holding their seats. Gavin Malone is running a strong campaign in Newry and Armagh and appears to be in the running for a seat. Emma DeSouza will certainly make an impact in Fermanagh and South Tyrone but she is very unlikely to win a seat. 

 

I suspect there will be at least 1.5% of the total vote going to independents, that score may even break the 2% mark. This then raises the question, what about Auontú? They were on around 2% in 2019 and I suspect they will either repeat that performance or improve slightly. The likelihood is that we will see Unionism polling around 43% and Nationalism at around 38% with Aontú and independents eating into the projected share of the larger parties in those blocs. 

 

If this poll was replicated on Thursday the results may look something like this. The individual constituencies are just a guess but a logical guess. I have assumed the 2 independent unionists will win and have taken them from the DUP and TUV. There is still one discrepancy which suggests Unionism is slightly closer to seat 41 than the non-aligned bloc is to seat 16 and Nationalism is to seat 36.




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