US Presidential election: what happened?
This is a long piece, c.6,000 words, so I have split it into 12 sections. If there is a section you are particularly interested in in you can look for it below. They are:
Headline results
Was polling accurate?
The influence of new media
Ground game
Swing states and new swing states?
National swings
Demographic shifts
Issues?
Republicans next moves
Democrats next moves
The state of elections
Data Tables
I don’t usually write about American politics, it can be complicated and I am far removed from the major issues, but the Trump era of American politics has been fascinating. Trump has consistently outperformed polling and even when he lost the popular vote by a large margin in 2020, he only narrowly missed the out on retaining his Presidency due to the nature of the Electoral College.
I remember being fascinated by the seemingly strange results back in 2016 and it caused me to research the electoral college. This time, there seems to have been just as much surprise at Trump winning as there was in 2016 but, ironically, there shouldn’t have been. Trump was performing much better in polling (I’ll look at this later) and had a much stronger campaign than in his previous two elections.
I want to write this piece to summarise what happened and in particular share my own perspective of the election, as an outsider looking in, and why so many people failed to see that Trump was the favourite to win this one. I realise I may have been looking at different sources to most people, but Trump’s win even came as a major surprise on this side of the Atlantic. Hopefully this piece will highlight what I was seeing and why that led me to believe Trump was on course for a big win.
Headline results
We know that Donald Trump won the election, along with the coveted popular vote, while the Republicans flipped the Senate and retained control of the House of Representatives. In terms of raw figures this cannot be described as a landslide, but I suppose you can excuse people for claiming one given the Republicans won the three legislatures in one night.
At the time of writing some votes are still being counted but the projected final margins will not change much. Donald Trump has turned a 4.5% point deficit into a 1.6% point win nationally. He has added just under 3 million votes while Harris fell around 6.7 million votes short of Biden’s winning tally from 2020.
This was a high turnout election, falling not far short of the numbers recorded in 2020 and Harris now holds the unfortunate record of winning the most votes without winning the Presidency. Harris has added almost 9 million votes to the tally Clinton won in 2016, but Trump has added around 14 million to his own 2016 tally. I will compare these results go both 2020 and 2016, partly to show the Trump effect but also because 2020 was a weird election.
Everyone will be aware that Trump refused to concede the 2020 election, and there have been some stories that warranted investigation, however the largest factor contributing to record turnout in 2020 was the Covid19 Pandemic. Ironically, it became easier than ever to vote as ballots were mailed out to everyone in some states and party volunteers were able to collect votes and drop them off. The effort of requesting an absentee vote or going to a polling station were gone and the Democrats were much more effective at encouraging low propensity voters to take advantage of the ease of voting in 2020. This is the real reason 2020 had such high turnout, it should not be a surprise that fewer votes were cast in 2024. It can skew the figures though when analysing which direction states are moving, which is why I will also be using 2016 as a comparison.
Was polling accurate?
In general polls were much better in 2024 than in 2020 or 2016 but there are still some issues in how they are used. The largest media companies generally have partnerships with individual polling companies, for example the New York Times uses Siena and CBS uses YouGov. They will reference other polls, but they will generally highlight those of their paid partner, and while they all use reputable polling companies it is possible for them to be making mistakes with methodology. If you get the bulk of your news from The New York Times then you would be most familiar with what Siena’s polls were saying and following the trends in those polls is useful but cannot give a full picture.
Since 2016 pollsters have struggled to reach Republican men in their polls, this means the final data might not be as accurate as it could be. Nate Cohn believes this remained an issue in 2024. While most have changed their methodology, either by deliberately seeking to interview more people from under-represented demographics, or by changing the response rating, there does still seem to be a slight underestimate of Trump’s support. One company that believes they have solved the problem is Rasmussen. Rasmussen’s final poll had Trump winning 5 of 6 swing states (they did not poll Arizona) with Harris narrowly winning Michigan. The most accurate pollster in 2020 was AtlasIntel, which uses online only polling rather than polling over the phone. The final AtlasIntel poll before polling day in 2024 had Trump winning every single swing state along with the popular vote by a 1% margin. Every single swing state polled by AtlasIntel finished within 1% of their final poll findings and their penultimate poll was not much different either.
Atlas and Rasmussen both proved to be quite accurate in 2024 but seemed to be largely ignored. Rasmussen was even removed from the ‘538.com’ poll tracker but was included in the rival ‘RealClearPolitics’ tracker. While media companies have a natural bias to report the polls they commissioned they should also seek out the results of other polls to give a full picture. But was there bias involved?
In the linked YouTube Short, MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow reports on polls. She states that the same poll shows Harris performing much better against Trump than Biden had been earlier in the summer, however the image displayed of the poll comparisons shows that they were comparing polls by two completely different companies. These companies would have used different methodologies and so cannot be compared as like for like, had they been the same poll then the comparison would have been useful. Was Maddow (or more likely someone involved in the show’s production) being deliberately misleading or did they not understand that they were not comparing like for like?
In addition to misunderstanding or ignoring certain polls about who people would vote for, not enough attention was given to polls asking about election issues (though CNN did regularly delve into this at least). Throughout the campaign three key issues dominated when people were asked about what was important heading into the election. The largest issue by far was the state of the economy with people believing Trump would be better for the economy while the next two were immigration (Trump lead) and abortion (Harris lead). Occasionally other issues crept into the top three (election integrity or voter ID) but never remained there. Trump remained consistently ahead in two of the three key issues in this election and that should have been a major indicator that Trump was on course for a victory.
Key issues according to Pew Research.
The most widely shared individual poll in the days before polling day was the now infamous Des Moines Register poll which had Harris winning Iowa by 3 points, a state Trump had won by 8.2 points in 2020. It was understandable to report such a seismic poll from a company with a great track record in previous years, but I saw very few point out that within the same day or two Insider Advantage had Trump winning Iowa by 6 points while Emerson College had Trump ahead by 10 points. Some people started adding Iowa to their list of blue states and speculated that states like Kansas might also be close rather than suggest that this poll might be the outlier. Trump would win Iowa by over 13 points in the end. Another major outlier was the Dartmouth College poll which had Harris winning New Hampshire by 28 points, Biden had only won it by 7.4 points and Harris would eventually win the state by just 2.8 points. For context Harris would only win 2 states plus Washington DC by a margin 28 points or above!
The failure to accurately represent what opinion polls were suggesting was a key factor in leading to the shock many felt on election night. The narrative was that Harris had the edge in a close race, but the opposite was true.
I don’t want to be too harsh on pollsters, they can only report what they find even if they suspect it may be an outlier, but we need to treat all polls with caution, look for trends rather than one headline figure and learn to treat polls with respect regardless of who has commissioned it. Some polls have been removed from polling aggregators for being partisan. I suspect most people allowed their own (perhaps subconscious) bias to influence their interpretation, perhaps people highlighted polls that said what they wanted them to and were quicker to ignore those that suggested the opposite.
The influence of new media
In the days after the election mainstream media news saw a major drop in viewing figures. CNN and MSNBC saw massive drops with the traditionally Republican leaning Fox News gaining viewers. Interestingly Fox News uses Decision Desk HQ to report results while the other use AP, Fox called very state much earlier than their rival networks. SOURCE
It has been suggested that viewers switched off after feeling misled about how the election might go.
Reports suggested that Harris received much more positive treatment by the media than Trump, indeed Kamala Harris appeared on the final SNL before the election in an apparent violation of broadcaster rules as the same opportunity was not offered to Trump.
Donald Trump made much better use of new media though. The Joe Rogan podcast is the largest podcast in the world and Trump’s appearance was perfectly timed, two weeks before election day allowing plenty of time for people to watch the full 3 hour long conversation or see a collection of short clips from the conversation. Harris was invited to appear separately but her team could not reach an agreement with Rogan for the format of the show. Joe Rogan would later endorse Donald Trump on the eve of the election, perhaps influencing the millions of Gen Z and Millenial men who regularly listen to him and follow his lead and turn out for Trump.
Harris did of course appear on a podcast herself, the ‘Call Her Daddy’ podcast, which has a huge audience of women. But why was Harris’ interview with Alex Cooper nowhere near as effective as Trump’s appearance on ‘The Joe Rogan Experience’? The answer is twofold, firstly Cooper’s ‘Call Her Daddy’ has never been a political podcast (Rogan’s also isn’t strictly political but he has had such a range of guests across a variety of fields that at this stage it is perfectly normal to see a Presidential candidate appear on a regular episode), it is described as a ‘sex advice and comedy podcast’, so not at all known for dealing with political issues, did this annoy some listeners? The second part is that Harris was reaching her own voter base anyway, she was speaking to a group of people for whom, abortion was an issue and had, most likely, decided to vote for the Democratic candidate whoever that may have been. Of course motivating the base is important but this podcast appearance was never really going to win over any new voters. On the other hand, while Trump always led with men, his team knew they had to move the needle with Gen Z and, as I will show later, Trump performed remarkably well with Gen Z men.
The VP candidates also made podcast appearances with JD Vance also managing to make an appearance on, ‘The Joe Rogan Experience’. If the Harris campaign was nervous about Harris sitting down for 3 hours with Rogan, they should have been brave enough to send Tim Waltz.
In addition to the Trump campaign making effective use of podcasts, several high profile online personalities influenced their followers into voting for Donald Trump. Tim Pool, who was a member of the Democratic Party as recently as 2019, and describes himself as a liberal or a moderate, urged his viewers to vote for Trump and repeatedly stressed the urgency of turning out to vote, even in states where the result was not in doubt. Left wing commentators have been asking where their own version Tim Pool is, the answer is he has always been there but his ideas have not resonated with the DNC. Tim Pool has managed to conduct an interview with Trump in the last year and has managed to have several other key Republican figures involved in his conversations.
Stephen Crowder hosted the largest election night show in 2020 and while his platform has shrunk over the last 4 years he remains an influential figure urging people to vote for Trump. Crowder was demonetised by YouTube and, while he is still on the platform, he encouraged his army of followers to jump ship and watch on Rumble, a new competitor (but still a long way off) to YouTube. His move to Rumble took many listeners with him arguably enabled them to discover even more conservative voices feeding into the loop of news presented from a conservative point of view rather than the liberal viewpoint present on mainstream media.
No discussion of new media in this election cycle would be complete without mentioning the ‘Daily Wire.’ Ben Shapiro’s business has seen massive growth over the last few years, to the extent that many content creators have signed up to the Daily Wire platform. The Daily Wire has also extended beyond reporting news and politics and now also makes documentaries, films and Tv shows, it even has its own children’s division. The Daily Wire has allowed creators like Matt Walsh to create attention grabbing documentary style films about culture war issues such as ‘What is a Woman’ and ‘Am I Racist’ which expose how views which would have been regarded as extreme or bizarre 10 years ago are now being seen as perfectly normal in certain spaces. The issue of gender self-ID was prominent in this election with athletes like Riley Gaines speaking out regularly, Matt Walsh can no doubt claim some credit for raising the profile of this issue and, despite the Harris campaign shying away from the issue, ensuring people knew where Trump stood on the matter.
Cenk Uygur of, ‘The Young Turks’ is possibly the best known YouTube host on the left. Cenk has been critical of the DNC for a while now, but unlike creators on the right who feel MAGA Republicans are listening, he has struggled to make waves with any establishment Democrats. Cenk’s co-host Ana Kasparian now considers herself to be an independent after a journey of more than a year or so led to her leaving the Democratic Party. Both main hosts now seem to agree that the most extreme voices on the left are being highlighted, and perhaps given time by the Democrats, at the expense of the views of regular working class communities. These are the voters who have shifted to the Republicans, much to the dismay of Cenk and co. Perhaps one of the reasons Democrats feels they do not have their own Joe Rogan (who also previously voted Democrat and backed Bernie Sanders in 2016) or Tim Pool is that they simply do not engage with them in the same way MAGA Republicans have. Content creators, independent of any media platform, can ask questions that mainstream politicians gave never considered. Cenk Uyger recently praised Donald Trump Junior for engaging with an issue he’s been raising for a decade while also lamenting the fact that `democrats have failed to.
X (formerly known as Twitter) has played a major role in the last 3 Presidential elections. This time the platform was different. Elon Musk bought the company in 2022 and swiftly moved to end censorship, this allowed Donald Trump and others such as the Babylon Bee (a news satire site similar to ‘The Onion’) back onto the platform. Algorithm changes also meant that conservative voices were highlighted to the same extent as liberal voices and user engagement was almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. While accusations of misinformation have been plentiful Musk seems to have solved the issue through community notes. Rather than a post be removed or a person be “shadow banned” any post containing anything that is factually wrong will receive a Community Note. Any community note must cite the source and a notification is sent to anyone who has interacted with a post in receipt of a community note. The ease of information sharing for those on the right might have had a major effect on this election as conservatives flocked to X in the belief that mainstream media sources favoured Democrats.
New media is here to stay. Podcasts, streams and social media will play an ever increasing role in elections into the future, Trump and his team have effectively grasped this much more quickly than Democrats. Legacy media also has a major issue in adapting to ensure they do not lose younger generations altogether.
Ground Game
Historically Democrats have had a much stronger ground game than Republicans, as mentioned above this was particularly noticeable in 2020. Democrats certainly had more volunteers on the ground in 2024 but the Republican campaign was more effective.
Organisations like Campus Reform and Turning Point USA were crucial to Trump’s victory. Trump made significant gains among young men, black men and Hispanic voters. Charlie Kirk, perhaps inspired by Stephen Crowder’s work with ‘Change My Mind’ led an effective campaign on university campuses. Kirk was helped by being joined at times by people like Vivek Ramaswamay (who performed well in the Republican Primary with Gen Z voters) and high-profile conservative figures like Candace Owens. Vivek is now working in the newly formed ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ with Elon Musk.
Not only did these groups highlight specific issues, but they focused on registering voters. In this cycle more voters identified as Republicans than Democrats and that margin correlated well with the result of the election. One person, who has been highly praised on X by Republicans, is Scott Pressler who moved to Pennsylvania with the express intent of turning it red. Pressler formed ‘Early Vote Action’ to register new voters in the state, with a particular focus on certain counties eg. Bucks County. Pressler’s team was also effective at mobilising the Amish community to vote for Trump. Pennsylvania would go red, by a larger margin than Trump managed in 2016 and saw a 2.9 point swing from 2020.
In addition to registering new voters some Republicans began to embrace early voting and mail in voting. Registered Republicans voted early in record numbers in this election. At the time the question was whether these were new voters or existing voters turning up early. It appears they were indeed new and low propensity voters showing up early and slashing the Democratic early vote lead while Republicans once again won by a large margin with in-person votes on election day.
The Democratic strategy didn’t really change from 2020, and in fairness why would they change it after the 2020 success? But Republicans understood they needed to improve in this area and their ground game, while much smaller, was much more targeted at specific kinds of voters. Democrats cannot afford to have a scatter gun approach again. They knew they were losing with men, but nothing they tried was able to appeal to those voters being swayed by Trump.
Swing states and new swing states?
There were seven swing states in this election; Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and, Wisconsin. Biden won 6 of these states in 2020 (missing North Carolina) and Trump won 6 in 2016 (missing Nevada). New Hampshire should probably have been considered a swing state as well, but due to the arithmetic of the electoral college the state’s 4 electoral votes were unlikely to be required by either candidate and so there was little campaigning done there. Minnesota is in range to be considered a swing state, but even though margins are usually tight the state has been reliably Democrat for a long time, even Reagan did not win the state. This time around Democrats had an added boost in Minnesota with it being the home state of VP candidate Tim Waltz (perhaps Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania might have been a more strategic choice given the state’s importance in deciding the electoral college).
Trump won all seven swing states, his margin of victory in each state being as follows;
Arizona 5.5
North Carolina 3.2
Nevada 3.1
Georgia 2.2
Pennsylvania 1.7
Michigan 1.4
Wisconsin 0.9.
Harris won New Hampshire by 2.7 and Minnesota by 4.3.
Winning a swing state by 5.5 points is massive but it might not be a bad idea to take Arizona as a marker for what may be considered a swing state. Excluding all the states which a candidate won by a double digit points margin we are left with 13 states, these are states worth keeping an eye on over the next few years to track any shifts in the mid term elections and ahead of the 2028 presidential campaign.
All of the states mentioned above are of course in this category with 4 more also being won by single digit margins. Kamala won all 4 and they are;
Virginia by 5.8
New Jersey by 5.9
New Mexico by 6
Maine by 6.8
Every single state has moved to the right since 2020 so perhaps a comparison to how these states voted in 2016 is more appropriate. In 2016 Clinton also won all 4 of these states and the margins were;
Maine by 3
Virginia by 5.3
New Mexico by 8.2
New Jersey by 14.1
So Harris has performed better in two of these states (by a small amount in Virginia) and worse in two, and by a significant amount in New Jersey.
The reason I mention these states is to see if they are moving into swing state territory. Since 2016 Ohio and Florida have become solidly red having previously been considered swing states, while Colorado has become deep blue in the same period. Will any of these states continue to trend towards the Republicans, or was this vote simply a one off?
National swings
One of the biggest surprises of the election was that Trump only won the swing states by narrow margins and yet won the national popular vote. Consensus is that it is difficult for Republicans to win the national popular vote because Democrats win California and New York (the largest and 4th largest states) by such large margins. This time around though, Trump won both Texas and Florida (the 2nd and 3rd largest states) by double digit margins and significantly improved his vote in both New York and California.
The shift to the right in these states is massive;
New York; 11.9 points since 2020 and 10.7 points since 2026
Florida; 9.7 points since 2020 and 11.9 points since 2016
California; 8.7 points since 2020 and 9.6 points since 2016
Texas; 8.1 points since 2020 and 4.7 points since 2016
*full results tables can be found at the bottom.
The shift to the right in these large states had absolutely no effect on the electoral college, but it did swing the popular vote. Trump actually campaigned in New York during his trial while Harris held an event in Texas with Beyoncé as a guest. Perhaps the rallies do not have much of an effect, Harris lost ground in Texas and Trump’s gains in New York were replicated in other states he did not campaign in anyway. Interestingly Republicans should have won more down ballot races but many Trump voters did not vote Republican right down the ticket.
As mentioned above several other states saw significant shifts to the right. New Jersey may be moving into swing state territory, Illinois was another big mover; several solidly blue states moved right by over 5 points including Massachusetts and Hawaii. Every single state has moved to the right since 2020 and 29 states plus DC has moved to the right since 2016. Colorado has had the largest shift to the left since 2016 but 6 states have shifted to the right by a larger margin.
It is difficult to know for certain why so many states are shifting so quickly in one direction or the other. Florida and Virginia both have immensely popular Republican governors, Ron De Santis in Florida polls even better than Trump relative to the Republican Party.
Some states have seen shifts triggered largely by specific demographics. When Biden won Georgia in 2020 it was largely due to record breaking black voter turnout, but in 2024 black men shifted to the right. Jewish voters largely backed Trump in New Jersey, the Amish voted for Trump in Pennsylvania and Arab voters were split with many favouring Jill Stein (Green Party) rather than backing the Democrats in Michigan.
Perhaps the most significant factor has been migration between states. Many people have left California and New York for other states. Interestingly people have tended to go to states which already vote their preferred way, Californians have turned Colorado a deeper shade of blue while Republican voters who left New York have helped turn Florida ruby red. The effects of internal migration will be more significant in the 2032 election after electoral college votes are reapportioned based on the census. If current trends continue then California will drop below 50 electoral votes and, if each state were to vote the same way as in 2024, there may a net gain of as many as 12 electoral votes for Republicans.
Demographic shifts
There have been significant shifts in how different groups are voting. Black voters have shifted 5 points to the right since 2016 with black men shifting 8 pints to the right. Hispanic voters have shifted 17 points to the right since 2016 with Hispanic ken moving 23 points to the right. Those aged 18-39 have also shifted between 6-7 points to the fight since 2016. Asian voters have also moved 10 points to the right since 2016.
In 2020 Biden was able to mitigate some of these shifts by making slight improvements among white voters (the largest voting group) but the minorities have been trending right for a while now.
Kamala Harris performed worse than both Biden and Clinton with women (though these results are in the margin of error) while Trump has increased his vote share among women.
Selected Demographic breakdown, 2024,2020,2016. Significant tends to the right highlighted in red.
|
|
2024 |
2020 |
2016 |
|||
|
|
Republican |
Democrat |
Republican |
Democrat |
Republican |
Democrat |
|
Men |
55 |
42 |
53 |
45 |
52 |
41 |
|
Women |
45 |
53 |
42 |
57 |
42 |
54 |
|
White |
57 |
41 |
58 |
41 |
57 |
37 |
|
Black |
13 |
85 |
12 |
87 |
8 |
88 |
|
Hispanic |
46 |
52 |
33 |
65 |
29 |
65 |
|
Asian |
39 |
54 |
36 |
63 |
29 |
65 |
|
Native American |
65 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
52 |
43 |
41 |
55 |
37 |
56 |
|
White men |
60 |
37 |
61 |
38 |
62 |
31 |
|
Black men |
21 |
77 |
19 |
79 |
13 |
80 |
|
Hispanic men |
55 |
43 |
36 |
59 |
32 |
62 |
|
White women |
53 |
45 |
55 |
44 |
52 |
43 |
|
Black women |
7 |
91 |
9 |
90 |
94 |
4 |
|
Hispanic women |
38 |
60 |
30 |
69 |
26 |
68 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024 |
2020 |
2016 |
|||
|
|
Republican |
Democrat |
Republican |
Democrat |
Republican |
Democrat |
|
18-24 |
42 |
54 |
31 |
65 |
35 |
56 |
|
25-29 |
45 |
53 |
43 |
54 |
39 |
53 |
|
30-39 |
46 |
50 |
46 |
51 |
40 |
51 |
|
40-49 |
50 |
48 |
44 |
54 |
49 |
46 |
|
50-64 |
56 |
43 |
52 |
47 |
53 |
44 |
|
65 and over |
49 |
49 |
52 |
47 |
53 |
45 |
|
Men 18-29 |
49 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
Men 30-44 |
53 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
|
Men 45-64 |
60 |
38 |
|
|
|
|
|
Men t5 and over |
55 |
44 |
|
|
|
|
|
Women 18-29 |
37 |
61 |
|
|
|
|
|
Women 30-44 |
43 |
54 |
|
|
|
|
|
Women 45-64 |
50 |
49 |
|
|
|
|
|
Women 65 and over |
45 |
54 |
|
|
|
|
The above info is taken from CNN’s exit polls in each year.
We can only speculate as to why certain demographics are shifting party support. Abortion may be an issue for Hispanic voters and Cuban voters in Florida are wary of Democrats moving too far to the left. Immigration may also be an issue, are legal immigrant resentful of illegal immigrants crossing the border and receiving favourable treatment?
Black men of retirement age are 10 points further to the left than working age black men. This may be down to historic reasons and memories of the civil rights era, or it could be down to Trump being viewed as stronger on jobs and the economy.
Young adults have moved significantly to the right, this is the demographic most in touch with culture war issues and arguably most effected by policies around culture war issues, but again, the state of the economy is most likely the main reason for this demographic moving to the right.
Issues?
This was a polarised election in that the two candidates were rarely talking about the same issues. Trump highlighted the economy, immigration, feee speech and, after joining forces with RFK junior, the health of America’s food. The economy and immigration were consistently the top two issues of this election cycle and Trump was leading in both of them.
Harris on the other hand focused on abortion in the hope that a silent majority of women would make their voices heard through the ballot box. Harris either misjudged just how many pro-life women there are or did not expect pro-choice women to simply vote in favour of abortion at state level after Roe v Wade was overturned.
Harris also failed to distance herself from Biden’s unpopular presidency. She was of course the VP but when asked by Sunny Hostin what she would have done differently over the last 4 years she said she could not think of anything. Of course she did not want to throw Biden under the bus, but she failed to even offer an answer with the value of hindsight to show she had learned from the Biden administration’s mistakes. From that moment Harris was seen as the continuity candidate, 4 more years of an economy that looked amazing on paper but where people did not feel it in their pockets.
Republicans next moves
Like every government Trump and the Republicans have a mandate to fulfil. Trump has promised to fix the economy and we have been told of two main ideas to do this. Trump wants to impose tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on USA, he hopes this will allow them to scrap federal income tax. The question then comes from what will happen if other countries lift tariffs to avoid receiving them, then federal, income will dry up, Trump has not answered that yet. He has however decided to save public money by creating the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamay. They hope to significantly reduce the size of the federal government and save the tax payer a huge sums of money.
Trump has also pledged to deport all illegals immigrants and close the border. Trump has made clear he is in favour of immigration, but wants to stop illegal border crossings. Every border county in Texas except two backed Trump in this election, there seems to be clear support for Trump’s to deal with illegal immigration.
RFK junior has been put in charge of health and while his anti-vax views have been highlighted his main aim appears to be tackling obesity and making America healthier by removing harmful additives to food. RFK will be judged by how much he achieves the latter while not banning childhood vaccinations without sufficient evidence that they are harmful (Kennedy believes they may cause autism).
Aside from that the Republicans will well do repeat what went well in this election. Continuing to make use of new media is key, as is continuing the voter registration drive. They will seek to make Arizona deep red, strengthen their position in the other swing states and move New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia into swing state territory. In 2020 the RNC diverted money away from Trump backed senate candidates who eventually lost, the party needs to lean that Trump has grown the party’s base and his endorsement is valuable. They also need to continue to engage with younger voters and black voters that the Democrats May have taken for granted.
Democrats next moves
The Democrats seem like a party out of touch with ordinary people. They have been trapped by culture war issues and have been afraid of annoying the more radical elements within the party. This has resulted in failure as they haven’t focused in everyday issues. How is a billionaire with criminal convictions more relatable to the average American than the Democrats’ best candidates?
Democrats need to focus in issues and forget about identity politics. The traditional Democratic coalition has broken down as minorities shift to the right. Minorities do not care about pandering, they care about policies and what will benefit them everyday. Too many liberal commentators have blamed sexism and racism for Kamala’s defeat rather than admit the party is out of touch.
Speaking of being out of touch, they need to embrace new media. They cannot manufacture a Joe Rogan or a Tim Pool, people do not want that, they respect these creators because they are genuine. Democrats simply need to engage with these forms of new media, formats that rely on real conversation rather than scripted talking points and sound bites.
In 2008 it was cool to be a Democrat, Barack Obama was cool, whether you liked him or not and he drew in thousands of people who would never have voted Democrat before. In 2024 the Democrats are seen as the establishment party, while the Republicans are seen as cool. I’ve managed to almost get to the end of this piece without mentioning the fact that Trump survived 2 assassination attempts, one where the bullet grazed his ear. The iconic image of Trump standing up after the shot resonates powerfully with men in particular and the imagery of Trump as a strong man who can stand up after such an attack is powerful. You cannot account for things like this in a campaign, but there has to be recognition that this made people look at Trump much more favourably. Republicans could not work out how to beat the iconic Obama in 2008 or 2012 and Democrats seemingly gave a similar issue with Trump.
The state of elections
As a final point I just want to highlight how ridiculous this election has looked to an outsider. At the time of writing (3 weeks after polling day) at least 3 states are still counting votes! In Northern Ireland we are used to slow counts, but this is a first past the post election. It’s a good thing California is not a swing state otherwise we might have waited for a full week to know the outcome of the election. Florida managed to count 97% of its 10.8 million votes in just 3 hours, perhaps governors across the states can get some advice from Rod De Santis.
A debate bubbling just under the surface is that of voter ID. We had this debate in the UK as well, to be frank I would suspicious of anyone who is opposed to voter ID. If there are practical concerns about accessibility then offer a free form of ID specifically for elections, just like what we have in Northern Ireland. The integrity of every vote must be protected, it is easy to ensure that voter fraud isn’t occurring while also making it easy to obtain ID. Bizarrely California Governor, Gavin Newsom, made it illegal for polling staff to ask voters for any kind of ID. Some states use signature verification but I do not feel it is as effective as photographic ID. We know that voter fraud has been occurring as well, a Chinese student was able to vote in Michigan, his illegal vote was only discovered when he asked for the ballot to be returned. He was arrested, but his vote counted!
Following the claims that the 2020 election had been stolen and concerns that it may happen again many people turned to X to report issues with voting on the day. Some reported that voting machines flipped votes while other reported being sent mail in ballots with marks already present beside a candidate. Voting machines broke in Pennsylvania causing polling to be extended for three hours and early voting in Pennsylvania had to be extended by two days after voters were wrongfully turned away. I appreciate that the United States is a much larger country than the UK, but surely having limited postal votes, paper ballots and hand counting is a much better way to ensure the election is free and fair. The election could well be full-proof, but if voters feel there is any evidence that fraud is occurring then surely authorities need to take steps to improve the system.
Tables
Main party vote share in each state: 2024, 2020 & 2016
|
|
2024 |
2020 |
2016 |
|||
|
State |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Rep |
|
34.1 |
64.6 |
36.6 |
62 |
34.4 |
62.1 |
|
|
41 |
55 |
42.8 |
52.8 |
36.6 |
51.3 |
|
|
46.7 |
52.2 |
49.4 |
49.1 |
44.6 |
48.1 |
|
|
33.5 |
64.2 |
34.8 |
62.4 |
33.7 |
60.6 |
|
|
58.6 |
38.2 |
63.5 |
34 |
61.7 |
31.6 |
|
|
54.2 |
43.2 |
55.4 |
41.9 |
48.2 |
43.3 |
|
|
56.4 |
42 |
59.3 |
39.2 |
54.6 |
41 |
|
|
56.6 |
41.9 |
58.7 |
39.8 |
53.1 |
41.7 |
|
|
90.3 |
6.5 |
92.2 |
5.4 |
90.9 |
4.1 |
|
|
43 |
56.1 |
47.9 |
51.2 |
47.8 |
49 |
|
|
48.5 |
50.7 |
49.5 |
49.2 |
45.6 |
50.8 |
|
|
60.6 |
37.5 |
63.7 |
34.3 |
62.2 |
30 |
|
|
30.4 |
66.9 |
33.1 |
63.8 |
27.5 |
59.2 |
|
|
54.8 |
43.8 |
57.5 |
40.1 |
55.8 |
38.8 |
|
|
39.7 |
58.6 |
41 |
57 |
37.8 |
57 |
|
|
42.7 |
56 |
44.9 |
53.1 |
41.7 |
51.2 |
|
|
41 |
57.2 |
41.5 |
56.1 |
36.1 |
56.7 |
|
|
33.9 |
64.6 |
36.2 |
62.1 |
32.7 |
62.5 |
|
|
38.2 |
60.2 |
39.9 |
58.5 |
38.5 |
58.1 |
|
|
52.1 |
45.4 |
53.1 |
44 |
47.8 |
44.9 |
|
|
62.2 |
34.5 |
65.4 |
32.2 |
60.3 |
33.9 |
|
|
61.3 |
36.5 |
65.6 |
32.1 |
60 |
32.8 |
|
|
48.3 |
49.7 |
50.6 |
47.8 |
47.3 |
47.5 |
|
|
51.1 |
46.9 |
52.4 |
45.3 |
46.4 |
44.9 |
|
|
37.7 |
61 |
41.1 |
57.6 |
40.1 |
57.9 |
|
|
40 |
58.4 |
41.4 |
56.8 |
38.1 |
56.8 |
|
|
38.5 |
58.4 |
40.6 |
56.9 |
35.8 |
56.2 |
|
|
39.1 |
59.6 |
39 |
58.2 |
33.7 |
58.8 |
|
|
Nevada |
47.5 |
50.6 |
50.1 |
47.7 |
47.9 |
45.5 |
|
50.7 |
47.9 |
52.7 |
45.4 |
47 |
46.6 |
|
|
New Jersey |
52 |
46.1 |
57.3 |
41.4 |
55.5 |
41.4 |
|
51.8 |
45.9 |
54.3 |
43.5 |
48.3 |
40 |
|
|
55.9 |
44.1 |
60.9 |
37.7 |
59 |
36.5 |
|
|
47.7 |
50.9 |
48.6 |
49.9 |
46.2 |
49.8 |
|
|
30.5 |
67 |
31.8 |
65.1 |
27.2 |
63 |
|
|
43.9 |
55.2 |
45.2 |
53.3 |
43.6 |
51.7 |
|
|
31.9 |
66.2 |
32.3 |
65.4 |
28.9 |
65.3 |
|
|
55.6 |
41.3 |
56.5 |
40.4 |
50.1 |
39.1 |
|
|
48.7 |
50.4 |
49.9 |
48.7 |
47.5 |
48.2 |
|
|
55.5 |
41.8 |
59.4 |
38.6 |
54.4 |
38.9 |
|
|
40.4 |
58.2 |
43.4 |
55.1 |
40.7 |
55 |
|
|
34.2 |
63.4 |
35.6 |
61.8 |
31.7 |
61.5 |
|
|
34.5 |
64.2 |
37.5 |
60.7 |
34.7 |
60.7 |
|
|
Texas |
42.4 |
56.2 |
46.5 |
52.1 |
43.2 |
52.2 |
|
37.8 |
59.4 |
37.7 |
58.1 |
27.5 |
45.5 |
|
|
63.2 |
32 |
66.1 |
30.7 |
56.7 |
30.3 |
|
|
51.8 |
46.1 |
54.1 |
44 |
49.7 |
44.4 |
|
|
57.3 |
39 |
58 |
38.8 |
52.5 |
36.8 |
|
|
28.1 |
70 |
26.7 |
68.6 |
26.4 |
68.5 |
|
|
48.9 |
49.7 |
49.5 |
48.8 |
46.5 |
47.2 |
|
|
26.1 |
72.3 |
26.6 |
70 |
21.9 |
68.2 |
|
Margins of victory in each state: 2024, 2020,2016
*Democrat victories listed as negative number for ease of sorting
|
|
2024* |
|
|
2020 |
|
|
2016 |
|
45.7 |
|
43.4 |
|
46.3 |
|||
|
41.9 |
|
38.9 |
|
42.1 |
|||
|
36.7 |
|
33.3 |
|
36.4 |
|||
|
36.5 |
|
33.1 |
|
35.7 |
|||
|
34.3 |
|
30.8 |
|
31.2 |
|||
|
30.7 |
|
27.6 |
|
29.9 |
|||
|
30.6 |
|
26.2 |
|
29.8 |
|||
|
30.6 |
|
25.9 |
|
29.8 |
|||
|
29.6 |
|
25.5 |
|
27.7 |
|||
|
29.2 |
|
23.2 |
|
26 |
|||
|
23.3 |
|
20.5 |
|
25.1 |
|||
|
22 |
|
19.1 |
|
20.6 |
|||
|
21.6 |
|
18.6 |
|
20.4 |
|||
|
20.5 |
|
16.6 |
|
19.6 |
|||
|
19.9 |
|
16.4 |
|
19.2 |
|||
|
19.3 |
|
16.1 |
|
18.6 |
|||
|
18.4 |
|
15.4 |
|
18.1 |
|||
|
17.8 |
|
14.4 |
|
17.8 |
|||
|
16.2 |
|
11.7 |
|
14.7 |
|||
|
13.7 |
|
10.1 |
|
14.3 |
|||
|
13.3 |
|
8.2 |
|
9.4 |
|||
|
13.1 |
|
8 |
|
9 |
|||
|
13.1 |
|
5.6 |
|
8.1 |
|||
|
11.2 |
|
3.4 |
|
5.1 |
|||
|
5.5 |
|
1.4 |
|
3.7 |
|||
|
3.2 |
|
-0.2 |
|
3.5 |
|||
|
3.1 |
|
-0.3 |
|
1.2 |
|||
|
2.2 |
|
-0.6 |
|
0.8 |
|||
|
1.7 |
|
-1.2 |
|
0.7 |
|||
|
1.4 |
|
-2.4 |
|
0.2 |
|||
|
0.9 |
|
-2.8 |
|
-0.4 |
|||
|
-2.7 |
|
-7.1 |
|
-1.5 |
|||
|
-4.3 |
|
-7.4 |
|
-2.4 |
|||
|
-5.8 |
|
-9.1 |
|
-3 |
|||
|
-5.9 |
|
-10.1 |
|
-4.9 |
|||
|
-6 |
|
-10.8 |
|
-5.3 |
|||
|
-6.8 |
|
-13.5 |
|
-8.2 |
|||
|
-11 |
|
-15.9 |
|
-11 |
|||
|
-11 |
|
-16.1 |
|
-11.4 |
|||
|
-11.8 |
|
-17 |
|
-13.6 |
|||
|
-13.8 |
|
-19 |
|
-14.1 |
|||
|
-14.3 |
|
-19.2 |
|
-15.5 |
|||
|
-14.5 |
|
-20.1 |
|
-15.7 |
|||
|
-14.7 |
|
-20.8 |
|
-17.1 |
|||
|
-18.5 |
|
-23.1 |
|
-22.5 |
|||
|
-20.5 |
|
-29.2 |
|
-26.4 |
|||
|
-23.1 |
|
-29.5 |
|
-26.4 |
|||
|
-24.9 |
|
-33.2 |
|
-27.2 |
|||
|
-28.1 |
|
-33.5 |
|
-30.1 |
|||
|
-31.8 |
|
-35.1 |
|
-32.2 |
|||
|
-85.8 |
|
-86.7 |
|
-86.8 |
|||
|
National |
1.6 |
|
National |
-4.5 |
|
National |
-2.1 |
|
|
2020 |
Change |
2024* |
|
|
|
2016 |
Change |
2024* |
|
-23.1 |
11.9 |
-11.8 |
|
|
1.2 |
11.9 |
13.1 |
||
|
-15.9 |
10 |
-5.9 |
|
|
-22.5 |
10.7 |
-11.8 |
||
|
3.4 |
9.7 |
13.1 |
|
|
-30.1 |
9.6 |
-20.5 |
||
|
-29.2 |
8.7 |
-20.5 |
|
|
-32.2 |
9.1 |
-23.1 |
||
|
-33.5 |
8.6 |
-24.9 |
|
|
-14.1 |
8.2 |
-5.9 |
||
|
5.6 |
8.1 |
13.7 |
|
|
-17.1 |
6.1 |
-11 |
||
|
-20.8 |
7 |
-13.8 |
|
|
17.8 |
5.5 |
23.3 |
||
|
16.6 |
6.7 |
23.3 |
|
|
-2.4 |
5.5 |
3.1 |
||
|
-29.5 |
6.4 |
-23.1 |
|
|
31.2 |
5.3 |
36.5 |
||
|
23.2 |
6.4 |
29.6 |
|
|
9 |
4.7 |
13.7 |
||
|
11.7 |
6.1 |
17.8 |
|
|
9.4 |
3.9 |
13.3 |
||
|
-17 |
6 |
-11 |
|
|
26 |
3.6 |
29.6 |
||
|
-0.3 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
|
|
14.3 |
3.5 |
17.8 |
||
|
30.8 |
5.7 |
36.5 |
|
|
18.1 |
3.5 |
21.6 |
||
|
-20.1 |
5.6 |
-14.5 |
|
|
8.1 |
3.1 |
11.2 |
||
|
-2.4 |
5.5 |
3.1 |
|
|
27.7 |
2.9 |
30.6 |
||
|
25.5 |
5.1 |
30.6 |
|
|
19.6 |
2.4 |
22 |
||
|
8.2 |
5.1 |
13.3 |
|
|
-27.2 |
2.3 |
-24.9 |
||
|
-33.2 |
5.1 |
-28.1 |
|
|
-8.2 |
2.2 |
-6 |
||
|
25.9 |
4.8 |
30.7 |
|
|
3.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
||
|
-10.8 |
4.8 |
-6 |
|
|
-15.5 |
1.7 |
-13.8 |
||
|
-7.4 |
4.7 |
-2.7 |
|
|
0.2 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
||
|
-19 |
4.3 |
-14.7 |
|
|
-86.8 |
1 |
-85.8 |
||
|
-10.1 |
4.3 |
-5.8 |
|
|
35.7 |
1 |
36.7 |
||
|
-2.8 |
4.2 |
1.4 |
|
|
0.7 |
1 |
1.7 |
||
|
16.4 |
3.5 |
19.9 |
|
|
29.8 |
0.9 |
30.7 |
||
|
18.6 |
3.4 |
22 |
|
|
29.9 |
0.7 |
30.6 |
||
|
33.3 |
3.4 |
36.7 |
|
|
29.8 |
0.4 |
29.2 |
||
|
-35.1 |
3.3 |
-31.8 |
|
|
19.2 |
0.1 |
19.3 |
||
|
16.1 |
3.2 |
19.3 |
|
|
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
||
|
8 |
3.2 |
11.2 |
|
|
18.6 |
-0.2 |
18.4 |
||
|
10.1 |
3 |
13.1 |
|
|
42.1 |
-0.2 |
41.9 |
||
|
27.6 |
3 |
30.6 |
|
|
20.4 |
-0.5 |
19.9 |
||
|
15.4 |
3 |
18.4 |
|
|
3.7 |
-0.5 |
3.2 |
||
|
26.2 |
3 |
29.2 |
|
|
-5.3 |
-0.5 |
-5.8 |
||
|
38.9 |
3 |
41.9 |
|
|
46.3 |
-0.6 |
45.7 |
||
|
-1.2 |
2.9 |
1.7 |
|
|
-13.6 |
-0.9 |
-14.5 |
||
|
-7.1 |
2.8 |
-4.3 |
|
|
14.7 |
-1.6 |
13.1 |
||
|
-13.5 |
2.5 |
-11 |
|
|
-26.4 |
-1.7 |
-28.1 |
||
|
-0.2 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
|
|
36.4 |
-2.1 |
34.3 |
||
|
-9.1 |
2.3 |
-6.8 |
|
|
-0.4 |
-2.3 |
-2.7 |
||
|
43.4 |
2.3 |
45.7 |
|
|
-1.5 |
-2.8 |
-4.3 |
||
|
14.4 |
1.8 |
16.2 |
|
|
-15.7 |
-2.8 |
-18.5 |
||
|
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
|
|
5.1 |
-2.9 |
2.2 |
||
|
-16.1 |
1.8 |
-14.3 |
|
|
-11.4 |
-3.3 |
-14.7 |
||
|
-0.6 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
|
|
-11 |
-3.3 |
-14.3 |
||
|
19.1 |
1.4 |
20.5 |
|
|
-3 |
-3.8 |
-6.8 |
||
|
33.1 |
1.2 |
34.3 |
|
|
20.6 |
-4.4 |
16.2 |
||
|
-86.7 |
0.9 |
-85.8 |
|
|
25.1 |
-4.6 |
20.5 |
||
|
20.5 |
0.9 |
21.6 |
|
|
-26.4 |
-5.4 |
-31.8 |
||
|
-19.2 |
0.7 |
-18.5 |
|
|
-4.9 |
-6.1 |
-11 |
||
|
National |
-4.5 |
6.1 |
1.6 |
|
|
National |
-2.1 |
3.7 |
1.6 |
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