New Liverpool University Poll

Liverpool Uni poll 2022 percentage share

 

DUP

19.4

UUP

14

TUV

6.4

Conservatives 

~1

Alliance

15.6

Green

6.3

SF

23.2

SDLP

9.9

Aòntu

~0.5

PBP

2.3

Others

~2

 

 

I was in the middle of writing my update on where Sinn Fèin are sitting ahead of the upcoming election in May when Liverpool University released the results of their latest poll. The results, and approximate results for smaller parties, are in the table above. Unfortunately we don’t have exact figures for some of the smaller parties which means this table only adds up to 98.5.

 

The basic headlines are;

 

·       Unionist voters very undecided about who to vote for

·       TUV definitely making gains

·       Sinn Fèin holding their level of support from 2019

·       Disastrous for the SDLP if replicated in May

·       Alliance looking at 5-6 gains

·       Massive for the Greens and could more than double their representation at Stormont

·       Overall Unionist support is at least 40%

·       Overall nationalist support is at least 36.5%

·       Overall non-aligned support is at least 21.5%

 

There are some large differences from the recent LucidTalk poll but the trends are the same. Both main blocs are losing support to the non-aligned bloc and Michelle O’Neill seems to be heading to the 1st Minister’s office. 

 

This poll is much better for the non aligned group putting them on 21.9%. To put that in context, of PR worked perfectly Alliance and the Greens would expect to have the same number or more seats than Sinn Fèin with  their tallies combined. Right now they have the same number of seats as the UUP, the 4th largest party in the Assembly.

 

The poll places the TUV further behind than the LucidTalk one. The poll does note that unionists in general are still unsure who to vote for and with 3 months still to go it will be difficult to predict how many P45s the TUV will deliver to the DUP. The UUP on the other hand look very steady and have been consistent in their support since Doug Beattie became leader. This poll was conducted after Beattie’s Twitter comments came to light so we can either assume voters don’t really care or were willing to accept his apology.

 

Making a full seat prediction based on these results is incredibly difficult, mainly because of the Green party, but we can have a rough estimate of what the figures may look like across the country.

Transfers are, of course, very important in a PR election but it is difficult to know exactly where transfers will go and so difficult to factor into the estimates. For the ‘others’ there are 2 current MLA’s contesting the May election as independents, both are unionists and both have very good chances of being re-elected based on their reputations, so it may be safer to assume the bulk of that 2% or so leans unionist, also note the PUP are missing from this poll. 

 

So based on this poll a par score in terms of seats for each party would be:

Sinn Fèin- 21

DUP-17

Alliance 14

UUP-13

SDLP 9

TUV-6

Green-6

PBP-2

Conservatives-1

Others-2

 

That would mean:

Unionists: 37

Nationalists: 32

Non-aligned: 20

With 1 more up for grabs, which is probably more likely to go unionist.

 

Just as an interesting aside. Recent ‘Life and Times’ surveys have shown an ever increasing number of people rejecting the ‘unionist’ and ‘nationalist’ labels. This poll suggests election results could come to reflect that.

 

There is plenty of time to go before the election and much can change. I aim to have an update on Sinn Fèin finished soon with other parties to follow after. 

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