What recent polling says about the 2022 Assembly Election



 

With May’s scheduled Assembly election possibly taking place a bit sooner here are some points to look out for and a rough estimate of how the parties may fare based on recent polling.

 

·       Poor polling for DUP means Sinn Fein are favourites to win the most seats and claim the First Minister position

·       Alliance look to make gains and become the third (they will ambitiously say second) largest party

·       Nationalists cannot gain from unionists, but there are some potential unionist gains from nationalists. 

·       Transfers will be very important, as ever

 

What are the parties aiming for? All of the following is based on the 2 most recent LucidTalk opinion polls which produced broadly similar results. A Liverpool poll produced very different results last year, but, appeared to show similar trends to LucidTalk. 

 

SF

·       Consolidate polling popularity and become NI’s largest party

·       Mitigate potential losses with excellent balancing

·       Win back voters who seem to have switched allegiance to SDLP and Alliance in the last election cycle

 

Last opinion poll: 25%

 

Potential gains 

None

 

Potential losses

North Belfast (2)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone (3)

Foyle (2)

Newry and Armagh (3)

West Tyrone (3)

West Belfast (3)

Mid Ulster (3)

South Belfast

 

 

SDLP

·       Make inroads into SF

·       Prevent losses to Alliance 

·       Attract a wide range of transfers to nudge ahead of SF in key constituencies where a nationalist seat is at risk

 

Last opinion poll: 11%

 

Potential gains:

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Foyle (3)

Strangford 

 

Potential losses 

Lagan Valley

South Down

Upper Bann

North Belfast

 

 

DUP

·       Mitigate potential losses

·       Ensure strong transfers from other unionists 

·       Strong vote balancing

 

Last opinion poll 17%

 

Potential gains

West Belfast

 

Potential losses

North Belfast (2)

South Belfast 

East Belfast (2)

North Down (2)

Strangford (3)

Lagan Valley (2)

South Down

Newry and Armagh

Upper Bann (2)

Mid Ulster

West Tyrone

Foyle

East Londonderry (2)

North Antrim (2)

East Antrim (2)

South Antrim (2)

 

 

UUP

·       Pick up DUP voters and seats

·       Win voters back from Alliance

·       Attract a broad range of transfers to sneak ahead of DUP in key constituencies 

 

Last opinion poll: 14%

 

Potential gains:

North Belfast

South Belfast

Lagan Valley

West Tyrone

Mid Ulster

Newry and Armagh

Foyle

East Londonderry

South Down

 

Potential losses:

East Antrim

 

TUV

·       Win over disaffected Unionist voters

·       Takes key seats from DUP

·       Have a presence in every constituency

 

Latest opinion poll: 12%

 

Potential gains:

Any constituency with more than 1 unionist elected.

 

Potential losses:

None 

 

Alliance

·       Retain voters who switched allegiance to them in the last election cycle

·       Win a seat west of the Bann

·       Become the third largest party

 

Latest opinion poll 14%

 

Potential gains

North Belfast

South Down

Newry and Armagh

West Tyrone

Upper Bann

Lagan Valley

Strangford

North Down

 

Potential losses:

None

 

There are 3 smaller parties with a chance of winning seats. 

 

The Green Party will aim to defend both seats and are hoping to challenge for a seat in East Belfast.

 

People Before Profit want to hold their West Belfast seat and make a gain in Foyle

 

Aontu will seek to challenge in any constituency where Sinn Fein have more than one seat.

 

 

The table below shows how the election might look if recent opinion polls are replicated on the day. The key figures are the final tally at the bottom, I have included individual seats so you can see where wins and losses may happen. It doesn’t necessarily mean I think the UUP will gain Mid Ulster, but it is a possibility, or they may gain West Tyrone instead and lose Mid Ulster. 


Assembly Election 22

 

With May’s scheduled Assembly election possibly taking place a bit sooner here are some points to look out for and a rough estimate of how the parties may fare based on recent polling.

 

·       Poor polling for DUP means Sinn Fein are favourites to win the most seats and claim the First Minister position

·       Alliance look to make gains and become the third (they will ambitiously say second) largest party

·       Nationalists cannot gain from unionists, but there are some potential unionist gains from nationalists. 

·       Transfers will be very important, as ever

 

What are the parties aiming for? All of the following is based on the 2 most recent LucidTalk opinion polls which produced broadly similar results. A Liverpool poll produced very different results last year, but, appeared to show similar trends to LucidTalk. 

 

SF

·       Consolidate polling popularity and become NI’s largest party

·       Mitigate potential losses with excellent balancing

·       Win back voters who seem to have switched allegiance to SDLP and Alliance in the last election cycle

 

Last opinion poll: 25%

 

Potential gains 

None

 

Potential losses

North Belfast (2)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone (3)

Foyle (2)

Newry and Armagh (3)

West Tyrone (3)

West Belfast (3)

Mid Ulster (3)

South Belfast

 

 

SDLP

·       Make inroads into SF

·       Prevent losses to Alliance 

·       Attract a wide range of transfers to nudge ahead of SF in key constituencies where a nationalist seat is at risk

 

Last opinion poll: 11%

 

Potential gains:

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Foyle (3)

Strangford 

 

Potential losses 

Lagan Valley

South Down

Upper Bann

North Belfast

 

 

DUP

·       Mitigate potential losses

·       Ensure strong transfers from other unionists 

·       Strong vote balancing

 

Last opinion poll 17%

 

Potential gains

West Belfast

 

Potential losses

North Belfast (2)

South Belfast 

East Belfast (2)

North Down (2)

Strangford (3)

Lagan Valley (2)

South Down

Newry and Armagh

Upper Bann (2)

Mid Ulster

West Tyrone

Foyle

East Londonderry (2)

North Antrim (2)

East Antrim (2)

South Antrim (2)

 

 

UUP

·       Pick up DUP voters and seats

·       Win voters back from Alliance

·       Attract a broad range of transfers to sneak ahead of DUP in key constituencies 

 

Last opinion poll: 14%

 

Potential gains:

North Belfast

South Belfast

Lagan Valley

West Tyrone

Mid Ulster

Newry and Armagh

Foyle

East Londonderry

South Down

 

Potential losses:

East Antrim

 

TUV

·       Win over disaffected Unionist voters

·       Takes key seats from DUP

·       Have a presence in every constituency

 

Latest opinion poll: 12%

 

Potential gains:

Any constituency with more than 1 unionist elected.

 

Potential losses:

None 

 

Alliance

·       Retain voters who switched allegiance to them in the last election cycle

·       Win a seat west of the Bann

·       Become the third largest party

 

Latest opinion poll 14%

 

Potential gains

North Belfast

South Down

Newry and Armagh

West Tyrone

Upper Bann

Lagan Valley

Strangford

North Down

 

Potential losses:

None

 

There are 3 smaller parties with a chance of winning seats. 

 

The Green Party will aim to defend both seats and are hoping to challenge for a seat in East Belfast.

 

People Before Profit want to hold their West Belfast seat and make a gain in Foyle

 

Aontu will seek to challenge in any constituency where Sinn Fein have more than one seat.

 

 

The accompanying shows how the election might look if recent opinion polls are replicated on the day. The key figures are the final tally at the bottom, I have included individual seats so you can see where wins and losses may happen. It doesn’t necessarily mean I think the UUP will gain Mid Ulster, but it is a possibility, or they may gain West Tyrone instead and lose Mid Ulster. 

 

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