Other unionists at the 2022 Assembly Election

 There have always been smaller unionist parties and unionist independents seeking election in Northern Ireland. Much more so than on the nationalist side, although that is beginning to change. This upcoming election will see the PUP and two high profile unionist independents seek election.

Why does the PUP not get its own piece like Aontú or People Before Peofit? To put it bluntly, I do not expect them to be in contention for any seats. The party has lost 2 high profile members in Belfast in the last year. Julie Anne Corr-Johnston, former councillor for Oldpark, and John Kyle, councillor for Titanic, have both joined the UUP. 

Corr-Johnston polled well in 2017. She finished just a few hundred votes short of the UUP candidate, though still well behind the 3 DUP runners. She is likely to poll well in North Belfast again, but her success may come at the expense of the PUP. John Kyle is not contesting the upcoming election and the PUP are yet to announce if they will contest East Belfast, what is sure though, is that they will not have someone in elected office to promote. 

The PUP has been plagued by the ‘progressive’ part of its name. It is an ill defined political term that means different things to different people. The party is solidly unionist and rejects the ‘practical’ approach being taken by the UUP towards the Northern Ireland protocol. The party also has links to the UVF, something which has always deterred potential working class loyalists from backing them. This blend of two forms of unionism has often seen high profile members at odds with the party leadership. Skilled representatives such as Dawn Purvis, former party leader, and Sophie Long both quit the party earlier in the decade.  The PUP is the only party with representation in Northern Ireland that identifies as loyalist, yet they have been perennially unable to attract the loyalist vote in significant numbers. 

The other unionists worth considering are the two sitting independents; Claire Sugden, MLA for East Londonderry and former Justice Minister, and Alex Easton, MLA for North Down having won the seat during his time with the DUP. Both have a strong chance at winning re-election in May.

Claire Sugden was co-opted into her role as MLA in East Londonderry following the death of independent unionist, and former UUP member, David McClarty. Sugden has then defended that seat twice winning 9.5% of the vote in 2016 and 11.7% in 2017. The bulk of her voters may be considered lapsed UUP voters, but she has also proven to be very transfer friendly. Alliance had a good result in the 2019 Westminster election, however, I would expect much of that Alliance vote to go back to Claire Sugden in May. Sugden is generally a liberal in her approach, but cannot be accused of ‘Lundyism’ as she has consistently opposed the Northern Ireland Protocol. Sugden is likely to retain her seat and will probably do so with an increased vote share. Many unionists abandoned the DUP for Alliance in the last election cycle but Sugden offers a genuine unionist and liberal alternative for voters in East Londonderry. She also has the benefit of having worked as an MLA in three different assembly mandates and has a track record to fall back on and use in her campaign. 

Alex Easton won his seat as a DUP candidate. Easton also contested the two most recent Westminster elections for the DUP and while he lost both the DUP would have been very happy with the party’s vote share. Easton was one of the members who quit the party last year after Edwin Poots was elected leader, unlike most who have since rejoined, he has remained an independent. 

It is harder to determine Easton’s chances at re-election given that he has not stood as an independent before. How much of his vote is personal and how much belongs to the DUP? He might find himself in a fortunate position though. He can offer a genuine unionist protest vote against the DUP, while still aligning with much of the party’s ideology. North Down is also a weird constituency, ‘other’ unionists have generally done well there and of course Lady Sylvia Hermon held the Westminster seat for many years as an independent. I am not as confident in Easton being elected as Sugden, but he is certainly one of the main contenders for the 5th seat in North Down. 

It would come as no surprise to see two independent unionists elected in May, but I feel this will be a poor election for the PUP. Over the decades it has been rare for there to be such competition in the intra-unionist battle, but while independents may benefit, the PUP finds itself in a bad place at the wrong time to capitalise. 

My prediction is a win for both Claire Sugden and Alex Easton and nothing for the PUP. I feel the PUP will struggle to break the 1% mark this election, even if we have a low turnout. 

Results of a  LucidTalk opinion poll are due next week. I will hope to have some form of analysis and update shortly after.