SDLP and the 2022 Assembly Election

The SDLP has bounced between 11% and 14.9% in the last election cycle. That 14.9% is a real outlier due to the nature of the 2019 Westminster election. The SDLP stepped aside in 3 seats, of which only North Belfast brings any significant number of votes. On the other hand they benefitted from tactical voting in South Belfast by more than doubling their 2017 Westminster tally and more than trebling their 2017 Assembly tally. This was thanks to Sinn Fèin, the Green Party and some smaller parties standing aside and backing the pro-remain Claire Hanna. Colum Eastwood also delivered a huge result in Foyle as he won around 8,000 votes from Sinn Fèin. For context 1% of the vote across Northern Ireland was around 8,000 votes.

 

Recent polling has placed the SDLP support between 10-12%. This doesn’t look good as not only are they failing to make inroads into Sinn Féin’s support but they are also leaking support to non-aligned parties. The most recent Liverpool University poll was horrible for the party, suggesting it may be set for under 10% of the vote for the first time in its history and be relegated to the 5^th largest party in the Assembly. With a likely decline in vote share, coupled with a likely decline in overall nationalist vote share, several SDLP seats look doomed.

 

Despite poor polling the SDLP are attempting to gain 2 seats. West Belfast is always a target for the SDLP and will be again, but this will be a tough one to win. PBP look safe and if the 4^th Sinn Fèin seat were to fall then a unionist may be the slight favourite to win it. If the SDLP poll well enough to stay ahead of unionists then they may win a seat, but they were not close enough last time and poor polling suggests they may be too far away again. The other potential gain is in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. The SDLP were unlucky here last time as Sinn Fèin balanced perfectly. This is the most likely gain for the party. Some may talk up the chance of a 3^rd seat in Foyle but it is more likely that any seat changes there will benefit either PBP or Aòntu. Strangford has always been a potential gain for the SDLP but there is a very slim chance with a declining nationalist vote share and a surging Alliance Party. 

 

The SDLP are defending several seats with the main threats coming in; South Down (from Alliance), Lagan Valley (from Alliance and a 4^th Unionist), North Belfast (from Alliance), and Upper Bann (from Alliance). East Londonderry may not look entirely safe on paper but they have had strong performances there recently and managed to outpoll Sinn Féin in the most recent Westminster election. Cara Hunter seems to be a strong vote winner and will be reasonably well known having be co-opted into the Assembly. 

 

I am certainly not suggesting the SDLP will lose all of these seats, but they will need a strong defence. If Alliance does surge then that may deprive the SDLP of vital transfers needed to win key seats. Lagan Valley will fall if Alliance balance 2 candidates ahead of the SDLP. The 4^th nationalist seat in South Down looks doomed and Sinn Féin have been consistently ahead of the SDLP throughout the last election cycle there. Alliance look set to win in North Belfast and it is most likely that a nationalist seat will fall. North Belfast will become a real priority as Nicola Mallon is the deputy leader and so acts as leader in the Assembly. She is probably the best known SDLP MLA and losing her would be a disaster. 

 

The SDLP have historically been very transfer friendly but they may not be able to benefit from this if they don’t have enough 1^st preference votes in these vulnerable constituencies. Order of eliminations really does matter for the SDLP and they absolutely must have their candidates ahead of Alliance in most of the constituencies listed above. Failing that they need to hope that either, Sinn Fèin win with huge surpluses or they fail to balance their vote evenly, recent elections suggest both scenarios are unlikely. 

 

The SDLP are directly competing with several parties for votes. Their main competitors on the nationalist side are of course Sinn Fèin. They are also competing directly with Sinn Fèin for seats. As mentioned above they are targeting Fermanagh and South Tyrone and West Belfast, but they are also seeking to defend several nationalist seats under threat including North Belfast and South Down. People Before Profit and Aòntu will also compete with the SDLP for votes and will also seek wins in Foyle and West Belfast. It is more likely that the SDLP will hold both seats in Foyle with Sinn Fèin being more vulnerable to one of the smaller parties. 

 

From outside of nationalism the SDLP are competing with Alliance and, to a lesser extent, the Greens. Alliance could be targeting as many as 4 seats held by the SDLP, although one of those 4 is also a tossup with Sinn Fèin. Both parties will also be competing for the vulnerable 4^th Unionist seat in Strangford and will likely be relying on transfers from the other to get over the line. 

 

It is unclear where the Green Party will be making gains from but the Liverpool University poll suggested they could be gaining at the expense of nationalists. If this were the case then it can cause further problems for the SDLP. In order to benefit from significant transfers the SDLP need to be ahead of their competitors and so, in a few constituencies, a drop in their vote combined with a boost for their rivals and a drop in the Sinn Fèin vote (meaning fewer transfers available) may lead to a very rough day for the SDLP. 

 

Much like the UUP it has been difficult to tell how the SDLP is different to its nationalist rivals. The major difference is in attitude, historically the SDLP has wished to unite Ireland by first uniting the people in Northern Ireland. While Sinn Féin will take any opportunity to call for a border poll the SDLP is more cautious and practical in it’s approach. Having said that, this approach has not played well in practical terms. There is very little evidence that the SDLP has made the prospect of a United Ireland more appealing to unionists while nationalists have increasingly viewed Sinn Fèin as the strongest candidate to deliver a United Ireland. 

 

The SDLP has traditionally been the most pro-EU party in Northern Ireland. Given strong support for Remain in Northern Ireland you may think this would play well, but outside of South Belfast in 2019 it has had little to no effect. Alliance has made support for the EU a key aspect of its identity, Sinn Fèin have been pro-EU since the Brexit debate started and the Greens have shown strong pro-EU support. While being pro-remain has not harmed the SDLP it certainly is not going to help them grow as they share this space with their direct rivals.

 

The SDLP is also split on social issues. There appears to be an age split in the party over issues such as abortion. This is a tricky area for the SDLP. Aòntu threatens to eat into the devout Catholic support for the party while younger voters see Alliance and the Greens as more solidly pro-choice. There has been some evidence of Catholics voting for unionists on the basis of their pro-life stance, to date that has not resulted in any seismic shifts, however parties who try to play both sides of such divisive issues may find themselves losing support to their rivals. The same applies to Sinn Fèin. 

 

The SDLP were among the first to hit out at the DUP when Paul Givan resigned as First minister. They have also been consistent critics of Boris Johnson and the Conservative party. Again, they aren’t alone in using these tactics. Attacking the DUP is nothing new and will only deliver results if the electorate buy that the SDLP is the DUP’s biggest rivals. In those seats where the SDLP hope to hold or win a seat against the DUP, there is another stronger challenger. They also do not have a hope, going by recent polling, of becoming the largest nationalist party. Attacking the DUP won’t hurt the SDLP, but again, it will not help them gain any traction against their rivals. 

 

Most the party’s current MLAs are expected to seek re-election. There may be some new faces standing in other constituencies such as Conor Houston in Strangford, but with the party slipping in the polls it is unlikely we will see too many new faces at Stormont. In the latter stages of the campaign expect the big hitters at Westminster to be heavily involved despite not contesting this election. This may pose a greater problem for the party. It’s two best vote winners will not be standing and Colum Eastwood has faced criticism for leading the party from Westminster rather than Stormont. As mentioned above, deputy leader Nichola Mallon’s seat is also under threat. The SDLP need to get some big personalities elected otherwise they face a further decline in the future.

 

There is some hope however. Cara Hunter has proven to be popular in East Londonderry and Daniel McCrossan has quietly been improving the SDLP vote share, despite declining turnout, in West Tyrone. The party also remains strong in Foyle, and even if Eastwood isn’t in the city as often as voters would like, they are still represented by talented MLAs such as Mark H. Durkan. 

 

I expect this to be a tough election for the SDLP. They overachieved last time around and with Alliance growing I expect them to be starved of vital transfers. I expect the SDLP to win just 11 seats with South Down and Lagan Valley falling to Alliance, though I do expect them to hold North Belfast.  

I will look at the Alliance party next, followed by some of the smaller parties hoping to make gains. I also hope to do a review on several constituencies over the coming weeks.