Constituency Focus: Mid Ulster

 


Mid Ulster is another Sinn Féin heartland and is the seat of the party's NI leader Michelle O’Neill. The constituency looks a bit weird on a map, it takes in east Tyrone  and stretches from just north of Dungannon in the south to Magherafelt in the north. 

 

Current seats

Sinn Féin have 3 seats and won them all easily last time around. The SDLP and DUP have a seat each. Francie Molloy of Sinn Féin is the MP for the area. 

 

Current bloc quotas

Nationalism’s recent high was 65.7% in the last Assembly election with a low of 60.2% in the most recent Westminster Election. That tally has declined slightly in every election since 2017. 

 

Unionism has ranged from 30.4% to 33.4% ( the latter just hovering around 2 quotas). Both of these results came in Westminster elections.

 

The other bloc has ranged from just 0.7% in a divisive Wetsminster election to 7.9% in the most recent Westminster election. More of that growth has come at the expense of Nationalism than Unionism. 

 

Recent electoral trends

Sinn Féin’s vote dropped below the 50% mark in 2019, a drop that mirrored the overall decline in the Nationalist vote but they have also lost some ground to the SDLP. This is not too dramatic but might be important for deciding that final seat.

 

The DUP have consistently been stronger than the UUP with the smallest gap between them being just under 7 points. 

 

Alliance have traditionally had abysmal results west of the Bann but the recent 7.9% was a fantastic result considering the very low base. If they continue to grow they may be in the running for a seat. 

 

Candidates

Sinn Féin have 3 candidates, they are; Michelle O’Neill, Linda Dillon and Emma Sheerin, with the former two being outgoing MLAs. The SDLP’s Patsy McGlone is defending his seat. Alixandra Halliday is in the mix for Aontú. Sophia McFeely is the People Before Profit candidate and Hugh Scullion is standing for the Workers Party. Conor Rafferty is standing for ‘Resume’, he supports repealing the current abortion law (which allows for abortion up to birth for children with conditions such as Downs Syndrome, Cleft Palate and Club Foot) and Irexit. It seems he is perhaps chasing traditional, conservative minded, Catholic votes. 

 

Keith Buchanan is defending his seat for the DUP while, Meta Graham is standing for the UUP and Glenn Moore for the TUV. 

 

Claire Hackett is the Alliance candidate with Stefan Taylor running for the Green Party. There is an independent on the ballot, Patrick Haughey, unfortunately I have been unable to find any reliable information on what he stands for. 

 

Battles

Sinn Féin have 2 safe seats and Patsy McGlone is also safe for the SDLP. There is also one safe Unionist seat. The final seat is potentially a target for several parties. Smaller Nationalist parties will hope to win the seat from Sinn Féin, but if Sinn Féin do lose the seat, it is more likely to be taken by a Unionist or Alliance. 

 

The Unionist candidates will know there is a slim chance of a gain here so expect them to recommend transferring to each other, some recent results might have seen Unionism win an additional seat here. They will also be battling with each other as both the UUP and TUV hoping to win a chunk of the DUP vote. Whoever is ahead on first preferences will likely be with winner here.

 

Alliance made a significant leap forward in 2019 and they will hope to retain that momentum. They will need to improve on the 7.9% because they will most likely be behind 2 Unionists if they are not on at least 9%. Alliance will only win this seat by splitting Unionists and winning a hige chunk of Unionist transfers. If Alliance win then it will likely be a gain from Sinn Féin unless the SDLP have a disaster (unlikely here). 

 

Issues

Mid Ulster is one of the most rural constituencies with a group of small towns. Environmental issues, particularly regarding Lough Neagh, are important. Michelle O’Neill received a huge vote here last time, the Sinn Féin vote may be useful for gauging how happy or otherwise Nationalist voters are with O’Neill.

 

Predictions 

Sinn Féin do need to defend their final seat here but, in the end, I expect this constituency to finish the same as it begins. 3 Sinn Féin, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP. The UUP may get close but I feel they have too large a gap to bridge to the DUP with TUV transfers likely favouring Buchanan. I also feel Nationalism will be able to hold all 4 seats. Alliance are probably too far behind and Alliance transfers will not help Unionists enough to catch the last Nationalist runner. 

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