Constituency Focus: Newry & Armagh

 


Newry and Armagh is a Sinn Féin stronghold and has been since Séamus Mallon retired. It is the only constituency to take in two cities in Northern Ireland with Armagh being a historic city and Newry being a city since the Queen’s Golden Jubilee. The area had major issues during the troubles due to its proximity to the border. Newry has had periods of small economic booms due to cross border trade. 

 

Current seats

Sinn Féin currently holds 3 seats, and won them comfortably last time around. The SDLP and DUP each hold 1. It was a actually a fairly comfortable win for all candidates last time. Sinn Féin’s Mickey Brady is the MP for the area. 

 

Current bloc quotas

Nationalism’s recent low is 59.2% with a high of 64.8%. Anything under 60% Could see the 4th Nationalist seat lost. 

 

Unionism has ranged from just 26.9% to 32.9%. Even the high score is not 2 quotas and, while a second seat would not be impossible, a Unionist gain looks very unlikely. 

 

The non aligned bloc scored a low of just 2.3% and a high of 8.3%. This is nowhere close to a quota but transfers could see the bloc gain a seat.

 

Recent electoral trends

Sinn Féin’s vote dropped significantly between 2017 and 2019, to the point where the third seat would be vulnerable. Some of that vote has been lost to Aontú which probably would not worry Sinn Féin too much as they would expect to win those transfers. Alliance also took some of that vote with the SDLP also taking a bit. The UUP actually beat the DUP here in the 2019 council elections and so they will have a hope of repeating that performance. In other elections the DUP has been well clear. 

 

Candidates

Sinn Féin have 3 candidates defending their 3 seats, they are; Conor Murphy, Cathal Boylan and Liz Kimmins. Justin McNulty will defend his seat for the SDLP. Daniel Connolly is standing for Aontú and Nicolas Grant will represent the Workers Party.

 

Gavin Malone is standing as an independent. This is an interesting one, Malone won a seat on Newry Mourne & Down council to represent Newry in 2019. He topped with poll with almost 3,000 votes and 1.6 quotas. He will need a great deal more votes to become an MLA but he has a solid base to build on.

 

There are 3 Unionists on the ticket, incumbent William Irwin will be challenged by the UUP’s David Taylor and the TUV’s Keith Ratcliffe.

 

Jackie Coade represents Alliance and Clara Henry the Greens.

 

Battles

There is probably only 1 Unionist seat here and so there will be a battle for it. There are only 3 candidates and this could be an area where the UUP have a real chance. With the TUV taking votes from the DUP and UUP better placed for transfers they may see this as a real opportunity. On the other hand Danny Kennedy failed to hold the seat last time and David Taylor doesn’t come with as great a reputation. This seat could go either way between the 3 Unionists. 

 

Sinn Féin are battling to hold their third seat. Any slip in Nationalist turnout will hurt them, but even if the 2019 performances are repeated then the seat could be lost. Alliance have a solid base to build on and, if Unionism cannot gain a seat, there will be a lot of votes to transfer. Order of eliminations will be important and Sinn Féin need to balance their vote well to hold of the threat of Alliance or a second Unionist. 

 

Issues

Newry and Armagh is a border constituency and so Brexit has become an issue. Border communities have made it clear they do not want a hardening of the border, but as mentioned before, Newry has occasionally benefitted from cross border trade. City deals have been talked about for Belfast and Londonderry and so Newry may perhaps have a claim of their own being well positioned to take advantage of cross border travel and indeed, it is on the main route from Belfast to Dublin. Infrastructure and transport may be an issue with rail services ending in Portadown and not stretching as far as the 2 cities. 

 

Predictions 

Sinn Féin will win two with the SDLP claiming one. There will be one Unionist and I think the DUP are slightly better placed to win that seat. The final seat is probably a battle between Sinn Féin and Alliance with Sinn Féin better placed. Unless Alliance can add a few more percentage points to their share then they need to be very lucky to claim the seat. 


* Edited to remove a section referencing something happening during the campaign which may have appeared biased. 



Comments

  1. John McCabeApril 18, 2022 at 1:27 AM

    What it necessary for you to mention the incident about Davy Hyland when the matter was immediately dealt with by Independent Candidate Gavin Malone I believe you should withdraw this piece as you are attempting to influence voters by such negative commentary. Furthermore if these are your observations which you wish to pursue then perhaps you can add that Mr Malone has been subjected to a slanderous campaign orchestrated by Sinn Féin evidence of which I am only to happy to produce. Finally Mr Malone is in serious contention to take the last seat in Newry and Armagh.

    ReplyDelete
  2. John McCabeApril 18, 2022 at 2:07 AM

    Also you are telling lies claiming that Mr Davy Hyland a former MLA and Councillor and not just Councillor removed 'election posters' seen in a video in fact he did not touch any posters whatsoever it was one election leaflet stuck in a postbox he foolishly removed and threw in a bin to make room for his leaflet in the post box. Gavin immediately dismissed Davy and you should remove your lies.

    ReplyDelete
  3. John McCabeApril 18, 2022 at 2:07 AM

    John McCabe

    ReplyDelete

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