Sinn Fein and the 2022 Assembly Election

Sinn Fèin are the favourites to become the largest party in May’s Assembly election. Having been nationalism’s largest party for a while it would be a major propaganda win for them to have Michelle O’Neill as First Minister. Things may not be quite as straightforward as everyone expects though. 

 

LucidTalk polling has had Sinn Fèin sitting on 24-25% consistently for a while now. Liverpool university’s poll had them just a bit below this mark. In the last election cycle LucidTalk overestimated Sinn Fein by just a little bit, but the consistency of the current polling tells us that Sinn Fèin’s support has been holding steady for a while now. Now 2% does not sound like anything dramatic but there could be a big difference in terms of seats if Sinn Fèin poll 23% rather than 25%. In the 2017 Assembly Election Sinn Fèin won all of their marginals. If they won the same share of the vote as last time there would still be at least 1, probably 2, seats at risk and so a drop of a few percentage points makes their potential losses even more probable. As I wrote this Liverpool university released a new poll putting Sinn Fèin on 23.2%, so right where they were during the 2019 elections. 

 

I previously mentioned how the DUP will simply aim to beat the other unionists and secure their transfers in order to hold most of their seats and Sinn Fèin may hope for something similar. The issue for Sinn Fèin is that there is only one other major competitor on the nationalist side, outside of a couple of constituencies, which makes the task slightly more difficult. The polling data matches the data we have from the last election cycle. Sinn Fèin appear to be losing some ground to Alliance, Aòntu and, to a lesser extent, the Greens and People Before Profit. Fortunately for Sinn Fèin the SDLP don’t seem to be making an impact into their vote and so transfers of the smaller nationalist parties may be crucial. 

 

The other slight issue for Sinn Fèin is the slight drop in the overall nationalist vote. Sinn Fein are actually defending as many as 3 seats from Alliance, with 2 other nationalist seats also at risk to Alliance, and they are defending at least 1, possibly as many as 4 from a Unionists with a slight overlap between the designations. A slight decrease in the nationalist vote will make it more difficult to attract the transfers needed to get over the line, a problem for Sinn Fèin as they hold the fifth seat in several constituencies. Interestingly the Greens have polled very well in the new Liverpool University poll, along with Sinn Fèin and the SDLP just about having 33%, this may suggest the Greens are attracting some nationalist voters. 

 

I may be overstating the potential for significant Sinn Fèin losses, but it is the case that a 3-4% drop in their vote share would absolutely cost them seats and might make the battle to become the largest party slightly more difficult. 

 

Sinn Fèin’s best performances recently, like the DUP, have come in the Westminster elections. They benefited from tactical voting in certain constituencies across both elections, of course they also stood aside in some of their weaker constituencies. In the recent STV elections they have been polling in the low to mid 20s. Martina Anderson claimed that a significant number of Sinn Fèin voters leant their votes to Naomi Long in the European election but their share of the vote was only 1 percentage point lower than their result in the local elections just before. The challenge for Sinn Fèin will be winning back voters to opted for other parties in the last election cycle, or possibly worse, stayed at home. 

 

 

Both unionism and nationalism seem to have lost ground to the ‘other’ bloc since 2019. Indeed the movement of votes from both the DUP and Sinn Fèin to Alliance was noticeable in the three 2019 elections. Alliance will be targeting 2 Sinn Fèin seats. North Belfast where Sinn Fèin will be hoping to balance well enough to ensure their candidates remain ahead of the SDLP; and West Tyrone where Sinn Fèin will be hoping to hold all of their 2017 voters, without whom the seat seems lost. 

 

Sinn Fèin are also defending against other pro-United Ireland parties. The SDLP are targeting a gain in Fermanagh and South Tyrone and there is a nationalist seat at risk in South Down, Sinn Fèin will be hoping to remain ahead of the SDLP to ensure they don’t fall victim to a surging Alliance party in the constituency. People Before Profit pose a threat in Foyle, where Sinn Fèin’s vote crumbled in the local elections and Aòntu hope to exploit Sinn Fèin’s vote in favour of allowing abortions for children diagnosed with conditions like Downs Syndrome or cleft pallet by winning votes in strongly nationalist areas. At the minute Sinn Fèin won’t worry too much about these threats, they will be confident of being far enough ahead to attract transfers further down the line, but it is possible that Aòntu may gain more support as they announce their candidates. People Before Profit have a chance of winning seats in West Belfast (where they already hold one) and Foyle, but may also harm Sinn Fèin’s vote in North and South Belfast. Both parties, on either side of Sinn Fèin on the political spectrum, have policies Sinn Fèin may be able to effectively exploit, but all will become clear when the campaign formally begins. 

 

The ‘nationalist surge’ of 2017 was really a Sinn Fèin surge. Their vote share rose by over 4% and they finished just 1,200 votes behind the DUP. It has been said 2017 created the perfect storm for a Sinn Fèin to capitalise on with a wave of sympathy over Martin McGuinness’s death, unionism’s mistakes over the Irish language, and effective positioning as the voice on LGBT issues. This led to increased turnout, only matched by the succeeding General election but turnout has steadily decreased since and Sinn Fèin may no longer be able to bank on the votes of those groups who turned out in 2017. 

 

Other parties have appeared stronger and more consistent on LGBT issues, the Irish language issues seem to have subsided and scandals including the infamous funeral in June 2021 and Barry McElduff’s apparent teasing of IRA victims have made Sinn Fèin slightly more difficult to vote for. For many Sinn Fèin voters these issues, while not ideal, may not be enough to turn them off the party. For those who voted Sinn Fèin for the first time in 2017 however, these issues may had led them to reverse their loyalty or simply not bother to even vote anymore. Sinn Fèin were very successful at growing their voter base in 2017, but polling evidence suggests this may have been a temporary surge, possibly in response to an unpopular DUP. With the threat of the DUP utilising the petition of concern gone, there is perhaps less onus to specifically vote against them like there as in 2017. 

 

Sinn Fèin are incredibly effective at political campaigning. In 2019 they focused everything they had in North Belfast and won the seat, however their vote share fell in every other constituency. Sinn Fèin will quietly promote Michelle O’Neill as the First Minister in waiting and hope the electorate strongly endorse her over Sir Jeffrey Donaldson. In addition to placing themselves as the DUP’s chief rivals they will also seek to hamper their immediate rivals for tight seats. They will highlight PBP’s support for Brexit and point out that the SDLP is led from Westminster rather than Stormont. They will hope this will be enough to swing a few voters in the fence but really Sinn Fèin’s task is to ensure they maintain their vote from before. Given that vote was largely driven by frustration with other parties they may have to rely on others making mistakes and so motivating voters to vote against them.

 

Some parties have been quick to criticise the DUP, and while Sinn Fèin have also done so they haven’t been the most prominent voices. Sinn Fèin are well aware that it was then who collapsed the previous assembly leading to a 3 year hiatus. Sinn Fèin, usually relishing the opportunity to criticise those in positions of power in the British establishment, have been deafeningly silent on Boris Johnson’s ‘partygate’ scandal. Perhaps they are not keen on voters remembering a certain funeral that took place during the height of lockdown in June 2020. Expect a quiet, but confident, campaign from Sinn Fèin as they hope to escape much scrutiny for their shortcomings in the last few years.

 

Poll after poll suggest Sinn Fèin are on course for the most votes in the upcoming election. Usually this would also mean the most seats. The last time a nationalist party received the most votes in an Assembly election was in 1998 when the SDLP won 22% of the votes. They finished 0.7% ahead of the UUP but won 4 fewer seats. Transfers, and inter-bloc standings, led to this unusual outcome. Given Sinn Fèin having a larger lead over the DUP at the minute it seems likely Sinn Fèin will also win the most seats, however it is not yet a forgone conclusion.

 

My prediction is that Sinn Fèin will be the largest party, but that it will be a bittersweet victory as nationalism as a whole will lose seats. 

 

I hope to cover the UUP in my next piece.