NI polling update: January 2023

 LucidTalk has released the results of the party support section of their most recent poll. This is the first NI tracker poll of 2023 The results are as follows:





 

It is almost pointless to analyse this poll because so little has changed. Every change in party support is within the margin of error but it does suggest an end to a previous trend, though not necessarily the beginning of a new trend. The headlines are:

 

·       Sinn Féin and the DUP support drops slightly, have both parties peaked?

·       UUP gain slightly, likely from the centre ground

·       Alliance are holding steady, the Greens are slipping

·       TUV continues to put pressure on the DUP

·       Sinn Féin’s loss is Aontú’s gain

·       SDLP stranded and have the same level of support as the TUV!

 

This is a dreadful poll for the SDLP. Clearly nationalists still want to see a nationalist first minister and the SDLP cannot offer that. Even worse for the SDLP is that the voters who would switch from Sinn Fèin would switch to Aontú or maybe even Alliance rather than the SDLP.

 

The TUV have won back some support from the DUP but it is unclear if this would make any difference. The TUV won 7.6% of the vote in May and still only won a single seat. The DUP are probably not too worried about this change but it is certainly enough to keep them wary that any softening of their position on the NI Protocol could see a flood of votes leave their camp for the TUV. 

 

The overall Unionist vote is up a single point. This sounds insignificant but changes between the blocs are rare in LucidTalk polls. This suggests that either; there has been a significant number of responses indicating they will vote Unionist having not voted previously, or that Green voters are being tempted by the UUP. I suspect the former is more likely but this is just an educated guess.

 

The Secretary of State is yet to call another Assembly election. As it stand Northern Ireland is due to go the polls in May for the local Council elections. These polls specifically ask about voting in an Assembly election so we cannot simply assume voters would vote the same way in a council election. 

 

You can see below how this election might play out in terms of seats. The ‘par score’ is what each party would win if PR worked perfectly, the ‘predicted seats’ column takes into consideration the specific factors at play in each constituency. 


 


 

I have also tracked every poll since the May election below so you can see the trends. 





I am unsure if there is due to be another LucidTalk poll before a potential Assembly election but I will cover any new polls as and when they are released. 


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