Constituency Focus: West Tyrone

West Tyrone has generally been regarded as a more ‘conservative’ constituency and while it may look like this has not played out much in elections it can be important for candidate selection. West Tyrone is a nationalist majority constituency but elected a UUP MP as recently as 1997 due to an almost 50-50 nationalist split in the vote. It is a rural constituency and its largest towns are Omagh and Strabane.

 

Current seats

Sinn Féin currently have 3 seats with a seat each for the SDP and DUP. The MP for the area is Órlaith Begley of Sinn Féin.

 

Current bloc quotas

Nationalism has ranged from a low of 52.6% to a high of 63.7%.

 

Unionism’s recent low was 28.7% (with Alliance making inroads) to a high of 32.1% (still under 2 quoats).

 

The non aligned bloc has ranged from a low of 2.3% to a high of 9.7%. The growth of the non aligned bloc has caused Nationalism to fall beneath 60% and Unionism to fall beneath 30%. Slightly more of the growth has come at a loss to Nationalism. 

 

Recent electoral trends

The SDLP has been growing slowly at the expense of Sinn Féin during this last election cycle. It is hard to know if the main reasons have been the popularity of Daniel McCrossan or Barry McElduff’s antics which led to him resigning his position as MP in 2018 (he is still a party member and was elected as a councillor in 2019). This trend will likely not impact any seats unless that movement is accelerated greatly. 

 

Alliance have seen significant growth here and were rewarded with a council seat on the Fermanagh and Omagh council. If Alliance continue to grow and can top the 10% mark then they will be in serious contention for the final seat. Their chances grow if they can be ahead of 2 Unionists and benefit from transfers.

 

The DUP have been well ahead of the UUP with the smallest gap between the parties being 7% in the 2019 local government elections (a figure so similar to that of Mid Ulster that I had to check and make sure I was not looking at the wrong data when writing this!).

 

Candidates

Sinn Féin have 3 candidates to defend 3 seats, they are; Declan McAleer, Nicola Brogan and, Maolíosa McHugh. Daniel McCrossan is defending his seat for the SDLP. Aóntu are hopeful of a gain with candidate James Hope. Carol Gallagher is on the ticket for People Before Profit. Paul Gags Gallagher is standing as an independent and while I cannot find any reliable information on him he appears to be standing as a nationalist. 

 

Tom Buchanan is defending his seat for the DUP and will be challenged by former Irish Senator Ian Marshall for the UUP. Trevor Clarke (not to be confused with the DUP MLA for South Antrim) is standing for the TUV.

 

Stephen Donnelly is hoping to secure a gain for Alliance and Susan Glass is representing the Green Party. Amy Ferguson is representing the Socialist Party. Barry Brown is standing as an independent, I believe this is the same person who previously stood as a candidate for CISTA (Cannabis is safer than alcohol).

 

Battles

The Unionist seat will be a real battle here. The UUP will probably feel disappointed they did not win last time but they just were not close enough to the quota with the DUP receiving a huge vote. Doug Beattie has decided Ian Marshall is the man to win that seat. The TUV may feel they have a chance here but it is likely a battle between the larger Unionist parties.

 

The final seat is up for grabs. Sinn Féin’s vote here has not been enough to sustain 3 seats since 2019 (possibly even 2018). The question is who is set to benefit. Unionism has a chance of making a gain but it would require the bloc to receive more than 30% of the vote, have the top 2 candidates relatively close to each other, secure almost all of the third candidate’s transfers and still hope for some non -aligned transfers. Alliance may also be well placed to win. If Donnelly can retain Alliance’s momentum and increase his vote share he will be well placed to secure Unionist transfers and overtake the third Sinn Féin runner. If Alliance can get 12% on first preference votes (which is ambitious but doable) then they will win this seat from Sinn Féin. 

 

The positive for Sinn Féin is that, even though their vote is declining, no one party is benefitting. The fracturing of that vote may allow Sinn Féin to just about remain ahead of their rivals for the final seat. 

 

Polling

Alliance will be encouraged by recent polling and will see West Tyrone as their best chance at a win west of the Bann. Even a slight decline in Sinn Féin’s vote could lead to trouble for them here and so polling suggests the battle for the final seat will be tight. The Unionist battle will likely also be tight according to polling. 

 

Issues

West Tyrone has a reputation for social conservatism. Issues such as the current abortion law may become important and so Aóntu may have reason for hope. Farming is a major part of the economy and so agricultural issues will be at the top of the agenda. West Tyrone is also a border constituency. 

 

Predictions 

Sinn Féin will hold 2 seats here but the third is in trouble and I suspect Alliance may be successful here. The SDLP are safe. On paper this looks like an area where the UUP should be capitalising on the decline in DUP support in order to make a gain, however Ian Marshall does not have the support of the local branch of the UUP. Beattie decided to make Marshall the candidate despite opposition from the local party who wished to nominate a local member. I must admit when Marshall announced he was joining the UUP I thought he was certain to receive the nomination for Newry & Armagh (where he is from) and so I was baffled by the choice to parachute him into West Tyrone. I believe the UUP may have shot themselves in the foot here, they will struggle to gain momentum if the local party is not enamoured with their candidate and the DUP will likely hold the seat.