What does the most recent LucidTalk poll tell us?

Poll Update

 

LucidTalk released the results of its most recent poll this week. You can see the results below.




 

Sinn Féin will be very happy to see this. They have broken the 25% barrier that seemed to be their ceiling in recent polling. The SDLP will be rather dismayed by this as Sinn Féin growing with the SDLP languishing in 5thplace is bad news for nationalism’s smaller party. There are a few vulnerable nationalist seats in this election and this poll suggests that those that fall will be those currently held by the SDLP.

 

On the Unionist side the DUP has eaten into some of the TUV support, but not by much. The UUP’s growth seems to have halted with Alliance pulling ahead of them. Perhaps the UUP’s stance on the NI protocol is not strong enough for unionists and not pro-EU enough for those attracted to Alliance. 

 

The overall ‘other’ vote would be up and on par with the most recent Westminster election. The Greens are struggling to make inroads according to this poll but Alliance are gaining ground.

 

One thing to bear in mind is that the Assembly is now officially in Purdah. Election posters began appearing last week. To date I have only seen Sinn Féin posters on the nationalist side, it is possible that this has led to a bit of excitement while most people are still waiting to discover who will challenge them. Various Unionist posters have appeared. Perhaps the reveal of unionist candidates has strengthened the DUP at the expense of the TUV. It is tough to say but this may explain the small growth for the two larger parties in this poll. 

 

It is difficult to read too much into this as the only party with movement outside the margin of error was the TUV (-3%). It does however confirm some trends when taken into account with the previous two LucidTalk and Liverpool University polls. 

 

·      The ‘other’ bloc is growing at the expense of both unionism and nationalism.

·      Sinn Féin remain dominant on the nationalist side

·      Unionism is still divided

·      The DUP may not perform as poorly as polling suggests

 

What will this mean for the election? If PR worked perfectly then you would see this, just as the graph above.




 

This is worked out by simply dividing the percentage point by 10 and then multiplying by 9 to see how it transfers to a 90 seat Assembly. This leads to 38 unionist, 36 nationalist and 16 other. Thankfully when we do the same with the blocs as a whole we get the same figure!

 

So if PR worked perfectly you may see something like this.

 




However PR rarely works perfectly and often the larger parties benefit at the expense of smaller parties. If a large party balances its vote well then it can be difficult for other candidates to overtake them. The DUP and Sinn Féin are experts at vote management in this way. So if we take this into account but assume the poll is largely correct then we will see something closer to this. 

 

 


As a caveat this is one opinion poll. I am unsure if there will be others before the 5th May but there is plenty of time for voters to change their minds. For what it’s worth, and I haven’t included these thoughts in my own analysis, I believe Sinn Féin’s vote will be a touch lower (possibly 23% with Aóntu and smaller nationalist parties or independents taking some votes) and the overall Unionist vote just a bit higher (possibly 43%). I have nothing  solidnto base these hunches on so for now have a look at the data we do have. Perhaps closer to polling day I will be brave enough to make a full prediction!

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