A new poll: Bad news for the DUP?



 

Liverpool University released another poll today. This one was much more similar to the LucidTalk Poll, at least it shows the same trends. The key difference though are that Liverpool Uni projects more votes for the Green Party and fewer for the TUV. Interestingly the difference between the Unionist and Nationalist blocs in this poll was just 0.6%.

 

You can see above the results of the poll along with what would be a par score in terms of seats. This is worked out by dividing the vote share by 10 and multiplying by 9 to show how it would equate to 90 seats if everything worked perfectly. 

 

The key trends we are seeing:

·      The Sinn Féin vote is strengthening and approaching 2017 levels again

·      The non-aligned bloc is continuing to grow

·      The TUV is slipping slightly

·      UUP and SDLP are stagnant

 

Differences to the LucidTalk poll:

·      Green Party performing much better

·      TUV performing much worse

·      Unionist and Nationalist blocs closer

 

This poll also explored some details that LucidTalk has not to date. The poll looked at second preferences and showed Alliance to be the most transfer friendly, UUP votes slightly more likely to go to Alliance than the DUP and TUV voters not transferring at all in large numbers. Taken together all of this is probably bad news for the DUP.

 

The poll also showed a high number of undecideds (17%), which was actually the second highest result. This tells us that there is much to play for during the campaign. Many people had also not yet decided on their second preferences, particularly TUV voters. This matches what we had heard before about Unionists being less sure about who to vote for.

 

Who that 17% of undecideds are likely to favour is anybody’s guess. Traditionally they have broken for the larger two parties. As candidates are announced perhaps incumbency will favour them.

 

If this poll were to play out exactly like this, and everything worked perfectly from a PR perspective then the result may look something like this. 

 



 

Elections rarely go that way however and so it is more likely to look a bit like the one below. The Greens find themselves in a tricky spot even with a doubling in their vote. At the last election 1% was around 8,000 votes. The Greens could gain 16,000 and still not get close to another seat. If they gain 1,000 in every constituency this will be the case. Their vote growth will need to be focused on specific constituencies if they are to win more seats. The TUV are also close to being in the same spot but are probably helped by a three way unionist split whereas the Greens’ main rivals are Alliance.

 

 


 

LucidTalk will be running another poll before election day and will also be polling second preference votes. 

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