Constituency Focus: East Belfast



 

East Belfast is the Alliance Party’s strongest constituency and the only area where they hold more than one seat. The DUP’s Gavin Robinson has been MP since 2015, having won the seat from Alliance’s Naomi Long. East Belfast is one of the most Protestant constituencies in Northern Ireland, it takes in the area between Titanic Quarter to Dundonald and it borders South Belfast along the Ravenhill Road. Demographic changes have led to more Catholics living in the constituency as well as more foreign nationals. 

 

Current seats

Alliance currently holds two seats and Naomi Long will defend her seat with a new running mate following Chris Lyttle’s decision to step aside. The DUP also defend two seats and the UUP one.

 

Current bloc quotas

Nationalists are not really in play in East Belfast, indeed it would be a brilliant result for the Nationalist bloc to even break the 5% mark. The bulk of the nationalist vote is centred around Short Strand but recent results have suggested either growing voter apathy there or voters opting for other parties such as Alliance and the Greens. 

 

Unionism has ranged from a low of 54.7% to a high of 60.3% in recent elections. Unionists will probably be encouraged by the fact that the low score was in the last Westminster election which was essentially straight fight between DUP and Alliance with some unionists backing Alliance as an anti-DUP vote. Apart from that the vote share has been rather stable.

 

The non-aligned bloc is exceptionally strong in East Belfast with Alliance benefitting from a popular leader based in the constituency and the party successfully positioning itself as a home for liberal unionist voters more than a decade ago. Vote share has ranged from a low of 35% to a high of 44.9%. Likely vote share this time is probably somewhere in the middle of that.

 

Recent electoral trends

Not much has changed in recent elections. The big difference was that swing from unionism to non-aligned in the 2019 Westminster election, prior to that things were relatively stable. It is likely the first past the post system, contributed to this change with Nationalist voters also backing Alliance. There has been no notable rise or decline in the Nationalist vote but it is safe to assume transfers will favour Alliance in the latter stages of the count. 

 

Candidates

Joanne Bunting will defend her seat for the DUP with a new running mate David Brooks. Andy Allen has a running mate for the UUP this time with Lauren Kerr. The other Unionist candidates are John Ross of the TUV and Karl Bennett of the PUP. The PUP has not won a seat here since 2007 when Dawn Purvis won. 

 

Alliance are defending both of their seats with incumbent Naomi Long running with Peter McReynolds. Brian Smyth is also standing for the Green Party and running a very energetic campaign in a seat that was once seen as the party’s most likely gain before winning South Belfast. 

 

On the Nationalist side Mairéad O’Donnell stands for Sinn Féin, Charlotte Carson for the SDLP and Hannah Kenny for People Before Profit. 

 

 

 

 

Battles

Both of Alliance’s seats are likely safe but Brian Smyth has proven to be an effective and popular councillor and he may challenge. Polling has been good for Alliance but local factors can be important and they have lost a popular MLA in Chris Lyttle so this battle may be in play. It would be a major shock for Alliance to lose a seat here though meaning Smyth is likely battling with Unionists. 

 

Unionism most likely has 3 seats here again but there will be an interesting battle. The DUP probably have a safe seat but the second is vulnerable. The TUV may see this is a target and the PUP cannot be entirely ruled out. The UUP also probably have a safe seat but their chances of gaining a second are slim. 

 

Polling

Given Alliance’s surge in the polls they are likely to retain their two seats here. One polling company has the Greens polling well and East Belfast might be a key area for them. While the unionist share is predicted to fall, it would take a drastic collapse for Unionism to lose a seat in East Belfast. Sinn Féin have been slowly gaining in the polls again, it will be interesting to see how many votes they end up receiving in areas like East Belfast where a seat is not viable. 

 

 Issues

Bonfires have been a hot topic in East Belfast in recent years, it has served to stoke up further tensions between Alliance and the Unionists. East Belfast has also been a key area for protests against the Northern Ireland Protocol given the strength of unionism and influence of paramilitary groups. In recent years a GAA team has been established in East Belfast along with an Irish language nursery, perhaps reflecting both changing attitudes, a desire for outreach and, to a lesser extent changing demographics.

 

Predictions 

I don’t see any change in the blocs here, Alliance will win 2 seats and there will be 3 Unionist seats. On the Unionist side I envisage 3 different parties winning with the DUP, UUP and TUV taking one each but do not underestimate the DUP’s ability to hold that second seat with good balancing.  

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