Constituency Focus: North Belfast

North Belfast is an increasingly diverse constituency. It has been growing slightly more Catholic over the last decade but the last Westminster election was the first time nationalism won a plurality of the vote. New student accommodation in Belfast falls within the constituency bounds but it is unclear how much this will affect the election. It is also unclear how many students will vote in North Belfast or their home constituency.

 

Current seats

There are currently 3 nationalists, (2 SF, 1SDLP) and 2 Unionists (both DUP). The last Election saw the DUP lose a seat as the constituency dropped from 6 to 5 seats. Alliance finished as runners up and would have won the final seat had they been able to attract more transfers from unionist voters.

 

Current bloc quotas

Unionism has done from a low of 41.4% to a high of 46.2% in the last election cycle. Nationalism has gone from a low of 40.9% to a high of 47.1%. The non-aligned bloc has ranged from 6.8% up to a high of 15%. On the best day for the non-aligned and the worst day for the unionism and nationalism the non-aligned bloc wins a seat from nationalists. Commentators have predicted Alliance to win a seat at this election at the expense of the DUP. While I agree Alliance are very likely to pick up a seat it is more likely to come from a nationalist. Unionism would need to drip below 35% to risk losing a seat and that does not seem likely for this election. Additionally nationalist would do very well to hold 3 seats on anything under  45% of the first preference vote. 

 

Recent electoral trends

Sinn Féin won the Westminster seat in 2019 on a record nationalist vote. This doesn’t tell the whole story though as the non-aligned grouping is making inroads in to nationalism as well as unionism. Alliance’s vote has fluctuated but if they can repeat their 2019 performance, which polling suggests is likely, then they should comfortably win a seat here, even without a quota. Unionism had been in decline but it would take a much more significant drop in the vote for unionism to risk losing a seat here. Indeed the 2019 Westminster election was the first election since 1998 that the DUP has not topped the poll. 

 

Candidates

Nationalists

Sinn Féin have two candidates, both in incumbents Carál Ní Chuilín and Gerry Kelly. The SDLP have one candidate, also an incumbent, Nichola Mallon. On the nationalist side Sean Mac Niocaill is running for Aontú and Fiona Ferguson for People Before Profit. I have seen posters for the Workers Party but to date I have not seen any candidate announced. 

 

Unionists 

The DUP are defending their two seats with two new candidates, Brian Kingston and Phillip Brett, both currently councillors. Julie Ann Corr-Johnston is standing for the UUP while Billy Hutchinson takes here place as the PUP candidate this time around. The TUV are running with Ron McDowell and Stafford Ward is running as an independent.

 

Others

Nuala McAllister is looking to move from runner up last time to MLA this time for Alliance and Malachi O’Hara is looking to follow up on his surprise win in the council elections with a surprise win this time for the Green Party. 

 

Battles

Alliance are looking strong for a gain in North Belfast. The question is who will lose out. As mentioned above it seems there will be enough votes and transfers to sustain 2 Unionist seats so Alliance are probably looking at a gain from a nationalists. This means there will be an interesting intro-nationalist battle between Sinn Féin and the SDLP. The SDLP may be at a slight advantage by only fielding one candidate while Sinn Féin needs to balance two candidates very well. The SDLP will also be more transfer friendly. On the other hand Sinn Féin are polling quite well and polls are suggesting the SDLP will struggle to hold its vote from 2017. If a nationalist seat falls in North Belfast then it is a coin toss between the second Sinn Féin and the SDLP. The smaller nationalist parties look unlikely to challenge for a seat but their transfers could decide the battle between Sinn Féin and the SDLP.

 

Polling has been poor for the DUP and they seek to defend two seats here. It would be a major shock of the DUP lost two seats and in reality they probably have a one safe seat here. That second Unionist seat is a real dog fight though between the second DUP runner, the UUP and the TUV. Many DUP voters may be tempted by the TUV this time around but Julie Ann Corr-Johnston has a track record in North Belfast. She served as a councillor for Oldpark and polled just 400 votes shy of the UUP candidate in 2017. The PUP and independent Stafford Ward are probably too far behind to challenge for the seat but their transfers may prove decisive. 

 

Issues

North Belfast is a diverse constituency stretching from inner city working class areas to the leafy suburbs of Newtownabbey. It is very evenly divided between Protestant and Catholics and has had a growing number of foreign nationals making North Belfast their home. Big issues in North Belfast include bonfires and parades along with educational underachievement, a lack of housing and poor quality housing and, the legacy of the Troubles.

 

Predictions 

North Belfast will be a tight race with 6 parties genuinely challenging for 5 seats with a few others maybe hopeful of  having an outside chance. Trends indicate nationalism will lose a seat to Alliance, at the time of writing I think the SDLP are slightly more vulnerable. On the Unionist side it is even tougher to call, the DUP can afford to lose a few thousand votes and still be ahead of other challengers, but will need strong transfers to maintain their lead. I predict; 2 Sinn Féin, 1 Alliance, 2 DUP, but I might say something different by next week!