Constituency Focus: South Belfast

South Belfast is seen as Northern Ireland’s most diverse constituency. It is the home of Queen’s University and has a large student population. You can also find Northern Ireland’s richest post code along with working class areas such as Sandy Row. The constituency has a large population of foreign nationals and has been the first place to look for people seeking to make Northern Ireland their home. The international meeting point is based in South Belfast. South Belfast stretches further out of the Belfast Council area than the other 3 city constituencies into Carryduff. Following major demographic changes in the 1990s the constituency became much more Catholic and has elected a nationalist MP in every election since 2005,with the exception of 2017. South Belfast was the first constituency in the UK to elect a Chinese National to any political body in the UK when Anna Lo won a seat in 2007.

 

Current seats

The constituency is currently represented by 5 different parties, which does officially make it the most politically diverse constituency in Northern Ireland. The 5 parties to hold seats are; SDLP, Sinn Féin, DUP, Alliance and, Greens. The DUP MLA Christopher Stalford sadly passed away earlier this year and was was replaced by Edwin Poots. The constituency is represented by the SDLP at Westminster.

 

Current bloc quotas

Unionism has ranged from a low of 27.4% in the latest Westminster election, to a high of 34.5% in the previous Westminster election. The target is probably to beat 32% and hope for transfers to bring a second seat into play. 

 

Nationalism has polled between 30.4% and 58.4%. That high was a huge victory for the SDLP with plenty of tactical voting. The low was the 2019 council election which saw Alliance and the Greens eat into the Nationalist vote.

 

The non-aligned bloc has gone from just 14.3% in the 2019 General Election to 34% in local government election earlier that year. While nationalism benefitted from tactical voting in the 2019 Westminster vote the non-aligned bloc seriously suffered, the Greens of course encouraged voters to back the SDLP in that particular election. 

 

There seemed to be a noticeable swing from Unionism to Alliance between 2007 and 2011 that Unionism has never fully recovered from. It is possible something similar may happen with Nationalism. We will find out this time just how much of that 2019 Nationalist vote was tactical.

 

Recent electoral trends

There has not really been a solid trend in South Belfast that we can follow. The DUP and SDLP have scrapped it out for top spot in recent years and have been the only parties with realistic chances of having 2 candidates elected. Unfortunately recent elections have been affected by tactical voting which makes mapping trends more difficult. The Greens will hope to continue their growth however and convert strong transfers into first preference votes. 

 

Candidates

Edwin Poots was co-opted into the late Christopher Stalford’s seat and he will defend the seat for the DUP. South Belfast has traditionally had a large field of Unionists competing but there are only 2 others this time; Stephen McCarthy of the UUP and Andrew Girvin of the TUV.

 

The SDLP are fielding 2 candidates with incumbent Matthew O’Toole facing the electorate for the first time, following his co-option in 2019, with running mate Elsie Trainor. Deirdre Hargey will defend her seat for Sinn Féin while Luke McCann stands for Aontú and Sipho Sibanda for People Before Profit. Paddy Lynn also stands for the Workers Party.

 

Paula Bradshaw seeks to defend her seat and bring Belfast Lord Mayor Kate Nicholl along with her for Alliance while Claire Bailly hopes to ensure she is still leading the Green Party from Stormont. The Socialist Party has a candidate in Neill Moore while there is also an independent (I am unsure if they have a community designation) Elly Odhiambo.

 

Battles

There are 7 candidates with serious expectations for winning a seat here, the problem is there are only 5 seats. A Unionist seat seems to be safe with a second being a slim possibility, so the battle between Poots and McCarthy will be an interesting one and again, do not rule out the TUV. 

 

Alliance are targeting a gain here, evidenced by the fact they have chosen a high profile candidate in Kate Nicholl who has proven to be a popular representative for the city. The Greens will also expect to hold their seat as the most transfer friendly party in the constituency. If Alliance make a gain here, it is slightly more likely to come from the Greens than a Nationalist.

 

On the Nationalist side the SDLP have a safe seat and will probably balance in favour of Matthew O’Toole. It is unclear if they have serious hopes of gaining a second or if Trainor is simply a sweeper candidate. Sinn Féin will expect to be safe but if a Nationalist seat does come under threat from Alliance then Hargey could be the one to fall.

 

Issues

Student issues are important for South Belfast with many students opting to vote in this constituency in 2019. Parties’ attitudes on the war in Ukraine may also be important here given the constituency’s high concentration of foreign born residents. Planning has been an issue for Belfast City Council with a wall at the Chinese Embassy being a controversial topic. Areas bordering the city centre such Sandy Row, Donegall Pass and the lower Ormeau Road are in great need of new housing and regeneration. 

 

Predictions 

I think it will as you were for seats here with every party currently holding a seat retaining them. I will watch the Unionist battle carefully though and I would not rule out a Nationalist loss, however polling suggests Sinn Féin should have nothing to worry about.