Constituency Focus: South Down



South Down is one of Northern Ireland’s most tourist friendly constituencies, being the home of the Mourne Mountains. It is the first border constituency we are looking at and it is generally rural with its western extremities ending just before Newry while also reaching as Far East as the Irish sea. The constituency is mainly Catholic with a few very Protestant towns. 

 

Current seats

Sinn Féin and the SDLP each hold seats. The other seat was won by the DUP in 2017 with Jim Wells who subsequently lost the party whip. Alliance were runners up last time around and would have won the final seat at the expense of the SDLP had they been able to secure Unionist transfers. Sinn Féin’s Chris Hazzard has been MP since 2017, defeating former SDLP leader Baroness Ritchie. 

 

Current bloc quotas

Nationalism’s recent low in South down saw the bloc win 56.6% of the vote while the bloc has polled as high as 75%. The caveat with the higher number is the SDLP’s tendency to win some tactical votes here in Westminster elections as the seat is a straight fight between them and Sinn Féin. 

 

Unionism no longer has a second quota in South Down, ranging from a low of just 21.3% to a high of 25.7%. 

 

The non-aligned bloc has scored between 3.5% (a tight Westminster election between SDLP and Sinn Féin) and 13.9% in the most recent Westminster election. Alliance takes the bulk of the non-aligned vote by far. 

 

Recent electoral trends

At the beginning of the election cycle Alliance advanced taking votes of Unionism. By the end they were also eating into the Nationalist vote. There may not be enough data to say with certainty, but Patrick Brown seems to attract more voters to the party than any other candidate. Sinn Féin overtook the SDLP here for the first time in 2017 and have remained ahead since, though the gap has narrowed slightly. The DUP are the largest Unionist party, generally hard lined Unionists have performed well in South Down. 

 

Candidates

Sinn Féin are defending their 2 seats with Sinéad Ennis and Cathy Mason. The SDLP also have 2 candidates defending their 2 seats, they are Colin McGrath and Karen McDevitt. Rosemary McGlone is standing for Aontú and Paul McCrory for People Before Profit. 

 

There are 3 Unionist candidates competing for a single seat. Diane Forsythe, who quit the DUP when Poots became leader and later rejoined, has won the party nomination. Edwin Poots had sought the nomination. Former UUP MLA, Harold McKee, is hoping to win the seat for the TUV and has been endorsed by Jim Wells. Jill MacAuley is the UUP candidate. 

 

Patrick Brown is standing for Alliance and hoping to go one better than last time when he was runner up. Noleen Lynch is the Green Party candidate. There is one independent on the ballot, Patrick Clarke, to the best of my knowledge he is not campaigning on a particular community designation. 

 

Battles

Sinn Féin certainly have 2 safe seats here and the SDLP have 1. Alliance finished a few hundred votes behind the second SDLP runner last time around and South Down is one of the party’s most likely gains. There is 1 safe Unionist here but the winner will be anybody’s guess. The TUV have had council success before and McKee has won here for the UUP. Diane Forsyth performed respectably when she stood as the DUP Westminster candidate in 2017. The battle for the Unionist seat is a proper 3 way scrap and anyone could win it. 

 

Issues

The aftermath of Brexit is important for south Down. Not only is it a border constituency but a key part of the local economy is in fishing. Maintaining access to existing fishing stock is important for several towns but in particular Kilkeel. The Narrow Water Bridge project has been spoken about for years and no doubt it will be raised again in the new Assembly. Green issues may leap up the agenda for voters as well after a series of fires on the Mourne Mountains.

 

 

Predictions 

Sinn Féin will hold both seats comfortably while the SDLP will lose one to Alliance. Polling has not been great for the DUP but I expect whichever Unionist finishes ahead on 1st preferences will win the seat, my guess is that the DUP should have enough to finish ahead of its competitors and Forsyth should be able to attract the Unionist transfers. 

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