Constituency Focus: Upper Bann

Upper Bann is one of the largest constituencies in terms of population. It is a prime example of why the boundaries need reviewed. With that in mind expect a huge quota here, possibly as high as 9,000! The constituency takes in Lurgan, Craigavon and Portadown among rural areas. It is more Protestant that Catholic and contains the origin place of the Orange Order. 

 

Current seats

The DUP hold 2 seats here having successfully defended both in 2017. The UUP, SDLP and Sinn Féin have one each. The DUP’s Carla Lockhart represents the constituency at Parliament. 

 

Current bloc quotas

Unionism’s recent low was 53.4% in the 2019 Westminster election with a high of 58.9%.  

 

Nationalism has ranged from 33.8% (right on the limit of 2 quotas) to 38.7%. Some Nationalist voters went for Alliance at the last Westminster election. This is interesting because, unlike Lagan Valley, Strangford and East Belfast, where this also happened, Alliance had no hope of winning the seat. They certainly weren’t the main rivals to the DUP and Sinn Féin were clear in 2^nd place anyway. This leads me to believe these were not tactical votes for Alliance, like in those other constituencies, but a shift towards the party with the SDLP suffering as a result. 

 

The non-aligned bloc has ranged from a low of 4.5% to a high of 12.9%. There was an initial gain from Unionism and then a slightly smaller gain from Nationalism. 

 

Recent electoral trends

Alliance has grown in the constituency in this last election cycle. That initial phase of growth came at the expense of Unionism but there is evidence to suggest Nationalism was also losing out towards the end. 

 

The DUP had opened the gap between themselves and the UUP recently but polling suggests that will reverse this time around. Perhaps Doug Beattie can inspire a change of fortunes as well. Meanwhile Sinn Féin have been clearly ahead of the SDLP but lost the seat they had gained from them in 2016 in the 2017 election.

 

Candidates

Diane Dodds was co-opted into the vacant Upper Bann seat when Carla Lockhart became MP, she is defending that seat along with sitting MLA Jonathan Buckley for the DUP. UUP leader Doug Beattie also hoping to bring someone to Stormont with him as Glenn Barr is also standing. Darrin Foster is standing for the TUV. There is also a new party in Upper Bann as Glenn Beattie stands for the Heritage Party. The Heritage Party is essentially the latest offshoot of UKIP.

 

John O’Dowd will defend his seat for Sinn Féin and is joined on the ticket by Liam Mackle. Dolores Kelly is the sitting MLA for the SDLP and she is also running again. Aontú have entered the race in Upper Bann with Aidan Gribben as their candidate. 

 

Alliance are hoping to make a gain with Eoin Tennyson as their candidate. Lauren Kendall is the candidate for the Green Party.

 

Battles

There were 3 Unionist seats here last time and if Unionism replicates it’s worst performance in the last election cycle then there should still be 3 seats, assuming Unionist transfers stay within the bloc. The UUP will hope to become the largest Unionist party in the constituency on the back of Beattie’s leadership. The TUV are also targeting one of the vulnerable DUP seats.

 

There has been an interesting Nationalist battle here in recent years. Sinn Féin have clearly been ahead, but the SDLP are attempting to slip in between the two Sinn Féin runners and secure their seat on transfers. Sinn Féin are hoping to have enough votes to avoid that possibility, and to balance their vote almost perfectly. 

 

Alliance are in the running for the final seat but it is unclear who is vulnerable. This contest for the final 2 seats is actually a 4 way battle between a third Unionist (most likely the second DUP) a second Sinn Féin, the SDLP and, Alliance. A lot could depend on the order of eliminations. It can be complicated but and will depend on transfers. The SDLP’s best chance at winning the seat is for Alliance to be eliminated, so the SDLP don’t really need to split Sinn Féin, they only need to beat Alliance which is a serious doubt based on recent polling and trends. Unionism should win 3 but that becomes very tricky if transfers don’t stay within the bloc. Equally there should be enough votes for 2 Nationalist seats but Sinn Féin may not be able to rely on SDLP transfers favouring them over Alliance. 

 

Polling

Unionism is projected to decline slightly, even with a slight decline in line with polling it should not harm their chances of 3 seats. The thing that will harm those chances is transfers, with polling (albeit with a larger than usual margin of error) showing that TUV voters may be transfer hesitant and that UUP transfers may favour Alliance over the DUP. 

 

The SDLP is regressing in polling and with Alliance polling well this could play out in Upper Bann with Alliance overtaking the SDLP. The overall Nationalist share is also projected to decline and so it could put that second seat under threat.

 

Issues

Upper Bann has been the centre of many protests against the Northern Ireland Protocol, no doubt this will be an issue at the polls. Beattie is party leader and the UUP vote here may be a referendum on his leadership so far. Upper Bann is still within Belfast’s area of influence being part of the Belfast commuter belt so issues affecting Belfast may also be important here.

 

Predictions 

This is a tough one to call, I am going against what other commentators are predicting for Upper Bann. I suspect the 3 Unionist seats will be held by the incumbents. Sinn Féin will hold their seat easily. I’ll be bold with this one though, Alliance to gain from SDLP. This is one to watch for the SDLP, like North Belfast, if polling is right they are in trouble here as some Nationalists begin to shift to Alliance.