Constituency Focus: West Belfast


West Belfast is Sinn Féin’s strongest constituency, currently holding 4 out of 5 seats. The constituency has not elected a non-nationalist since 2003 but the DUP have made strong attempts in recent years. 

 

Current seats

Sinn Féin in hold 4 seats with the 5th seat held by People Before Profit. The DUP have been runners up in the previous 2 elections, losing out on the very final set of transfers in 2016. The SDLP lost a seat as the constituency dropped from 6 to 5 seats.

 

Current bloc quotas

There was, just about, one non-nationalist quota here if the 2019 Westminster election was replicated as an Assembly election. The bulk of that was made up by the DUP’s 13.5% with Alliance adding 4.9%, but it is very unlikely that Alliance transfers would push the DUP over the line. The SDLP has half a quota in 2017 and dripped below that mark in subsequent elections. In reality there probably are not enough votes for Sinn Féin to win 4 seats, however West Belfast in unique and it would take something remarkable for transfers too fall in line and strip Sinn Féin of their 4thseat if recent results are replicated. 

 

Recent electoral trends

Alliance have been growing here recently, but they are growing from a tiny base and so are not in contention to win a seat. The one notable trend, which may have an impact, is the steady rise in the Unionist vote. Unionist voters have responded well to Frank McCoubrey since he joined the DUP and if he can continue his own upward trend then he may have a genuine chance at winning the seat.  

 

Candidates

Sinn Féin are fielding e candidates, they are; Danny Baker, Órlaithí Flynn, Aisling Reilly and Pat Sheehan. Gerry Carroll of People Before Profit is also defending his seat. The other contenders on the nationalist side include the SDLP’s Paul Doherty, Aontú’s Gerard Herdman, Dan Murphy of the Irish Republican Socialist Party and, two independents, Tony Mallon and Gerard Burns.

 

There are 3 Unionists competing for the slight possibility of seat. Frank McCoubrey goes again for the DUP and will be challenged by Lindsey Gibson of the UUP and Jordan Doran of the TUV.

 

Donnamarie Higgins will represent Alliance and Stevie Maginn will stand for the Greens. 

 

Battles

There are 2 key battles here. The first is the fight for that elusive Uniojist seat, last held by Diane Dodds. The three Unionists are not only competing to be the top Unionist but to actually grow the Unionist vote to a level that can see them win. Currently Unionism is around 3% shy of a quota and while a quota is not necessary to get a seat, it will require a growth in Unionism’s share of the vote and transfers to other Unionists.

 

The battle is over that 4th Sinn Féin seat. People Before Profit are comfortable with their solitary seat and don’t see a chance of gaining another one. The other contender is the SDLP. Doherty will know he can rely on non-nationalist transfers later in the count but he first must get ahead of one of the Sinn Féin candidates in order to do so. This is an election where more candidates will likely harm Sinn Féin as it may split their vote and help others split their candidates. Aontú are an unknown quantity and will hope to attract voters who consider themselves to be pro-life. If Sinn Féin has any candidates behind one of the nationalist contenders then they will probably lose that seat. 

 

Issues

West Belfast is consistently ranked as one of the most deprived areas of the UK. The area is dealing with the legacy of the Troubles and, much like North Belfast, is an area with severe housing stress and a need for upgraded housing. Casement Park is in West Belfast and while development has been approved it still faces challenges from residents groups, expect this issue to still be a problem for the new Executive. 

 

Predictions 

As mentioned this is Sinn Féin’s strongest constituency by far. They will expect to hold all 4 seats and on current polling that looks likely with People Before Profit taking the 5th. I wouldn’t rule out a DUP gain from Sinn Féin, but it is the less likely outcome 5 weeks from polling day. 

 



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