Constituency Focus: Lagan Valley





Lagan Valley takes in some Belfast suburbs but is largely centred around Lisburn and takes in the rural areas that look to Lisburn. It is is another of the most Protestant constituencies in Northern Ireland, a significant chunk of the nationalist vote comes from the West Belfast end of the constituency. It is largely seen as middle class however it has significant working class communities such as Ballymacash and Hillhall. 

 

Current seats

In the last election the DUP won 2 seats with the UUP, Alliance and SDLP winning 1 each. The SDLP famously won the last seat after a large number of UUP transfers went to Pat Catney over Brenda Hale. This was probably the one area where the ‘Vote Mike get Colum’ idea actually led to a seat change. Lagan Valley is currently represented by DUP party leader Jeffrey Donaldson at Westminster. 

 

Current bloc quotas

Nationalism’s high in Lagan Valley in the last election cycle came in 2017 when Catney won the seat. The combined Nationalist tally then was 12.8%.To put this into context, Unionism performed better in West Belfast and did not win. Nationalism’s low came in the 2019 Westminster election with a vote share of just 6.3%. Aside from that Nationalism was sitting at around 11%. No doubt many nationalist voters backed Alliance in the hopes of an upset to unseat Donaldson. 

 

Unionism is exceptionally strong in Lagan Valley. Unionism’s low was 64% in the 2019 General Election having reached a high of 77.4% in the previous General Election. 

 

The non-aligned bloc has swung from a low of 11.1% to a high of 28.8%. Both results coming in Westminster elections. 

 

Recent electoral trends

Alliance have been growing in Lagan Valley, some have been hyped by popular candidate Sorcha Eastwood but this growth was happening without her. I remember looking at the council results around Lisburn in 2019 and noticing the strong Alliance performance. At the time it seemed like they had got the vote out while Unionists were apathetic, it might have been the case but it seemed to be a turning point for Alliance in the area. Both other blocs have seen a relative decline as Alliance has advanced. As such Alliance are best poised for a gain in May at the expense of the SDLP. Having said that, Pat Catney has improved his showing at every election in Lagan Valley, culminating in his victory in 2017.

 

Candidates

The DUP are defending 2 seats with incumbent, and former First Minister, Paul Givan joined on the ticket by Jeffrey Donaldson for the first time in an Assembly Election since 2007. The UUP have 2 candidates with Laura Turner joining deputy leader Robbie Butler on the ballot paper. Lorna Smyth will attempt to win a seat for the TUV and former Conservative, Gary Hynds, is standing as an independent. 

 

Alliance are serious contenders for a gain even though incumbent Trevor Lunn quit the party meaning they have 2 new candidates, though both are councillors on Lisburn and Castlereagh council. Sorcha Eastwood is likely the lead candidate with David Honeyford also hoping to gain from Alliance’s increased popularity. Councillor Simon Lee is the Green Party candidate. 

 

Pat Catney aims to defend the SDLP’s most vulnerable seat while Gary McCleave is on the ballot paper for Sinn Féin and, Amanda Doherty for People Before Profit. 

 

Battles

The major battle here is for the 5th seat, held by Pat Catney of the SDLP. As mentioned above Catney benefitted from UUP transfers to help him defeat Brenda Hale. Transfers may be harder to come by this time around with 2 Alliance candidates on the ticket. Unionists will also be targeting the 4th seat they believe they should have won last time, but the DUP have only selected 2 candidates and this is perhaps a sign that, the DUP at least, do not think a 4th Unionist seat is likely. 

 

There will also be an interesting Unionist battle. With the TUV polling well it makes sense to assume any gains they make will come from areas where the DUP are strong. The TUV could be contenders to take the 2nd DUP seat and the UUP of course believe a gain is in play having lost their second last time as the constituency dropped from 6 to 5 MLAs.

 

Polling

Polls are looking good for Alliance and bad for the SDLP, logic would suggest we would see the out workings of those polls in Lagan Valley where the two parties are competing with each other for a seat. Even with the DUP slipping in the polls Lagan Valley will likely remain strong for them, especially given the size of the overall Unionist vote.

 

 Issues

The site of the Maze is in Lagan Valley, there has still been no political agreement over what to do with the site, though it has been used as an exhibition centre recently. Lisburn and Castlereagh council has been diligent in granting planning for house building but there have been concerns that there may be too many houses built in the constituency, oh what a problem to have! Lagan Valley makes up part of the key commuter belt to Belfast and so any economic policy changes in Belfast also affect voters in Lagan Valley.

 

Predictions 

The DUP are probably in a position to defend both seats here, the UUP have one safe seat and Alliance have a safe seat. The final seat is a three way battle between Alliance, the SDLP and a 4th Unionist with Alliance slight favourites to win it. 

 

 



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