NI polling update

LucidTalk NI Tracker Poll November 2022

 The big points from this poll centre on the DUP and Sinn Féin. Both parties are growing at the expense of the smaller parties in their bloc. This particular poll doesn’t show radical change, nothing outside the margin of error, but when we compare it to the election results in May we can see how things are moving.

 

·       The DUP are winning back voters from the TUV and UUP

·       Sinn Féin are continuing to capitalise on the chance to have a nationalist First minister by winning support from other nationalists.

·       Alliance are standing still, which I am sure they will be happy with

·       Smaller parties are struggling to make an impression

 

There are two major narratives going on at the minute, indeed both sides seem to be talking past each other, but they are fully reflected in these results.

 

The DUP are being rewarded by Unionist voters for taking a strong stance on the NI Protocol. Sinn Féin maintain the DUP simply do not want to have to work with a nationalist First Minister, and they are being rewarded by nationalist voters for this. All of this means that we are becoming more polarised and entrenched again, and the only beneficiaries are those that have led the executive since 2007.

 

What does this mean for seats?

 

·       The DUP would likely gain a couple, their two key targets are Alliance seats in North Antrim and Strangford.

·       Sinn Féin are in serious contention for 3 and they likely win at least 2 of them.

·       Alliance might lose a couple, but could stand to gain in other areas.

·       The UUP need to hold what they have but Doug Beattie’s seat is under threat to the Sinn Féin and Mike Nesbitt might struggle in Strangford. 

·       The SDLP are in even more trouble, Sinn Féin look likely to gain 2 seats from them In East Londonderry and South Down while Alliance are breathing down their necks in places like West Tyrone.

·       The TUV will easily hold their seat in North Antrim but their chances of making a gain are evaporating.

·       People Before profit will likely be safe in West Belfast, mainly due to other challengers not quite being strong enough and Aontú are still a fair way away from winning any seats.

·       ‘Others’ in this poll scored 1% but their result in May was over 3%. I can’t see anything suggesting Alex Easton and Claire Sugden would struggle to retain their seats. 

 

 

You can see below how this poll compares with other polls conducted since May.

NI Poll trackers 2022

NI LucidTalk Poll tracker 2022


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