Alliance and the 2022 Assembly Election

Alliance is one of the most interesting parties to consider when looking towards May’s Assembly election. Having struggled in 2016, they bounced back with 9.1% of the vote in 2017 and were within a few hundred votes of adding 2 additional seats. The last election cycle has seen the party reach a high of 18.5% in the European election of 2019 and hit a low of 7.9% in the 2017 Westminster election. Alliance will be pleased that since that low their vote has increased steadily hitting 11.5% in the council elections and 16.8% in the 2019 Westminster election. 

 

Alliance had a poor result in 2016, but since the collapse of the Assembly the party has been on an upward trend. Polling suggests they may have plateaued with the 18.5% achieved by Naomi Long in the 2019 European election. It was followed up by a strong 16.8 in the Westminster of 2019 but can they hit those highs again this year?

 

Polling has suggested the Alliance vote is holding steady, but Liverpool University have consistently had Alliance doing better in their polls than LucidTalk. The latter showing Alliance now steady on around 14%. Some in the party may be disappointed by this, but it would represent a 5 % increase in vote share since 2017. Sinn Féin’s vote didn’t improve by that much between 2016 and 2017 and that resulted in a net gain (no actual gain due to the reduction in the number of seats) of 4 seats. If Alliance can gain 4 seats I imagine they will be ecstatic.

 

Talk of Alliance becoming the second largest party seems premature. Recently they have consistently polled behind the DUP, roughly level with the UUP and, depending on the poll, not too far ahead of the TUV. Part of the issue with Alliance’s potential growth will be converting that growth into seats. All 8 of their current seats are safe and there are 2 very close gains (North Belfast and South Down) but converting other votes into seats can be tricky due to the nature of those seats. Alliance have always been very transfer friendly, if the votes they are gaining are simply former 2^ndpreferences then it isn’t as extreme a jump as it would appear. Alliance also risk occupying the most frustrating space in STV elections, that of comfortably winning a seat but not quite having enough to win 2.

 

The previous paragraph exaggerates Alliance’s issue slightly, but it is important to temper expectations of sweeping gains. Polling has them roughly level with the UUP and and so they could expect a similar number of seats. 

 

Alliance broke the 10% mark in 2019 with the local elections. It was an election with relatively poor unionist turnout and a swing from unionists to Alliance leading to several notable gains from unionists. In fact they might have had 2 seats in the Antrim DEA had they fielded 2 candidates.  The party’s vote skyrocketed later that year with the European election. Martina Anderson has claimed that some of her voters chose to ‘lend’ their votes to Naomi Long to ensure that 2^nd Unionist seat fell. Thankfully we had yet another election that year, and election which suggested Alliance were indeed gaining votes from Nationalist parties.

 

In the 2019 Westminster election there were clear swings from Sinn Fèin to Alliance in; West Tyrone, Newry & Armagh, Mid Ulster, South Down and, West Belfast. This suggests that Alliance have been making inroads into the nationalist vote and are making up ground west of the Bann. Alliance may expect to finally win seats in the Assembly from outside the greater Belfast area.

 

Alliance have targets all over the province. They hope to win second seats in; Strangford, Lagan Valley, East Antrim and possibly even North Down. They also hope to win a seat in; North Belfast, South Down, Upper Bann, Newry & Armagh, West Tyrone, and if they can replicate the European result, possibly  even North Antrim, East Londonderry and Mid Ulster. It is very unlikely that they will win all of these seats but they are all legitimate targets. 

 

In those constituencies where Alliance are seeking to win a second seat they are usually competing with Unionists. They will hope that a decline in the Unionist vote will allow them to slip  through and win the final seat. It will require good balancing along with a significant swing from unionism to Alliance in those constituencies. They are also competing with the SDLP in Lagan Valley (for Pat Catney’s seat) and Strangford (for the vulnerable 3^rd DUP seat) and appear to in a better position than the SDLP in both. 

 

In the constituencies Alliance are seeking to win for the first time they are competing with Sinn Fèin. Sinn Fèin’s vote has dropped in several constituencies and leaves their 3rd seats in those under threat. These also areas where Alliance have been growing. Unionists were the runners up in all of these constituencies last time so Alliance need to split the unionists and hope they receive transfers from them. If that is the case they can surely bank on nationalist transfers in the latter stages of the count

 

LicidTalk Polling has Alliance around 14%. In the 2019 Westminster election they polled 16.8%. Given the nature of the First Past the Post system they were able to effectively position themselves as the key rivals to the DUP in several areas. This somewhat skews their vote and makes it a bit more difficult to analyse. If we adjust some of these  to bring them closer to the earlier council election results, but still with a slight gain, such as North Down (1.2%), South Antrim (0.5%),Lagan Valley (0.5%) and Strangford (0.5%) along with taking the bulk of Claire Sugden’s vote in East Londonderry (0.5%) we can work out where they may actually sit there.  Remove that 3.2% and you are left with around 13.5%. Using this as our base we can see that Alliance are gaining in the west and in constituencies where they may soon become serious competitors for a seat.

 

Alliance also did well in constituencies where they were not contenders such as North Belfast, West Tyrone and Upper Bann. I see know reason why a voter would tactically have voted for Alliance in these constituencies for this election. It therefore seems reasonable to conclude that Alliance may have made a breakthrough in these areas and will certainly hope to hold those votes in May. 

 

Alliance has traditionally been seen as the Northern Ireland version of the Liberal Democrats. That isn’t so much the case anymore. Alliance have moved further to the left since Naomi Long became leader and have moved in the same direction as other ‘liberal’ parties in advocating for bigger government. Alliance have also made support for the EU a key component of their identity. Not only were they solidly pro-remain, but also called for ‘rigorous implementation’ of the Northern Ireland protocol, but have since supported certain practical mitigations.  

 

Alliance are hoping to get an integrated education bill through the Assembly before purdah. It is no surprise that Alliance are the biggest champions of this bill and have received support from other parties. The issue with Alliance going forward is, unless they are able to win a second seat in the Executive, policy decisions will be primarily focused on matters of Justice. 

 

Alliance remain neutral on the issue of the border, but over the last few years have made moves to win over nationalists. They supported the idea of an Irish language Act and have supported Irish language street signs in Belfast City Council. They have also been prominent in their opposition to certain bonfires. Alliance will hope these stances help the party grow amongst those who traditionally vote for nationalist parties.

 

Like other parties Alliance have begun announcing their candidates. Sorcha Eastwood will be the lead candidate in Lagan Valley and they will hope that her popularity from the 2019 Westminster election will hold and that she can pull David Honeyford through to Stormont with her. Other candidates have been around for a while yet are still very young such as Patrick Brown in South Down and Nuala McAllister in North Belfast. The party seem to be selecting popular local councillors and hoping their record on council has won over the electorate. 

 

Recent polling has shown that the ‘other’ bloc could manage to poll more than 20% of the vote. If this were the case then it would reflect a growing trend shown in the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey which shows society heading towards a 40-40-20 breakdown between 3 communities. Perhaps Alliance are still held back by the traditional view of the party as being the party of middle class Protestants but there is no doubt they are working hard to change that view.

 

I expect Alliance to significantly improve their vote share, but adding a huge amount of seats will be difficult. I predict Alliance will finish on 12-13 seats, but they could even be as low as 11. Regardless, this will be an election where the Alliance party advances and may even double its representation around the Executive table.