Aontú and the 2022 Assembly Election


Aontú is an even more difficult party than People Before Profit to discuss. We at least have the control aspect of PBP holding 1 seat and having held another seat previously. Aontú have not yet contested an Assembly Election and so far have only contested some local government and Westminster seats.


Aontú, as a party, is still largely an unknown entity for many in Northern Ireland. The party was formed by Peader Tóibín when Sinn Féin decided to campaign in favour of legalising abortion in the Republic of Ireland. As such, many see Aontú as essentially Sinn Féin except they are solidly anti-abortion. With Sinn Féin and, to a lesser degree, the SDLP moving towards a pro-abortion position, Aontú could present themselves as a republican alternative for those who feel strongly about the issue. Perhaps they will seek to attract a socially conservative Catholic vote. There is no doubt that a vote for Aontú should be seen as a vote against Northern Ireland’s now very liberal abortion laws, previously anyone who felt strongly about the issue only had some unionists or select independents as their options. 


Dr. Anne McCloskey won a seat for Aontú in the 2011 local government elections, however she stepped down and the seat in now held by Emmet Doyle for the party. Back in 2016 McCloskey, running as an independent, finished as runner up in Foyle, narrowly losing out to PBP. Given the established electoral record in the area Aontú may see Foyle as a key target in May and probably their most likely win. 


At the time of writing Aontú has selected 9 candidates for the upcoming election. I would expect a few more to be announced but I would be surprised if they nominated candidates in all 18 constituencies. Smaller parties have to be aware of the funds available to them and selecting candidates in areas where there is no chance of a win for that designation often is not an option. The larger parties will nominate for every constituency but don’t expect to see an Aontú representative nominated in constituencies such as North Down or East Belfast. 


It is very difficult to say how well the party will fare in May. If they are to win any seats they will most likely come at the expense of Sinn Féin in areas where Sinn Féin are very strong. Foyle, West Belfast and West Tyrone will likely be the key targets but I expect them to fall short in all constituencies. Battling Sinn Féin’s ground work and not being able to rely on well known local personalities will make this tough election for Aontú, however if the party is serious about being around for a long time then they will use this election to firmly establish what they stand for in the minds of local voters. Success will likely not be judged by the final seat tally, rather the vote share in those key constituencies. 


I will look at the PUP and some independent unionists next time. 


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