People Before Profit and the 2022 Assembly Election

It is difficult to analyse PBP’s vote share in recent elections. They only field candidates in a few constituencies and they are polling at around 2% consistently. In recent years they have posed a threat to Sinn Fèin in these constituencies so I will explore how likely this is again.

 

PBP added councillors in Belfast in the 2019 council elections. One of those gains was in the Oldpark DEA of North Belfast. That gain actually came from the PUP but the nature of the win was interesting. The SDLP only fielded one candidate but he won enough votes to elect 2 people with good balancing. PBP benefitted from the transfers and were able to pull ahead of the remaining unionist candidates. This sort of luck is rare but it has perhaps helped the party to raise the profile of another candidate.

 

PBP’s sole MLA is Gerry Carroll in West Belfast. He won his seat in 2016 from Sinn Fèin and it seems to be a safe seat. Eamon McCann also won a seat in Foyle in 2016 but fell a year later when the constituencies dropped from having 6 seats to only having 5. This is a key target for PBP to win back. If they win then it will likely be a gain from Sinn Fèin but there is also a chance of the sole unionist seat falling, turnout will be key to keeping that unionist seat. With polling suggesting there hasn’t been any significant growth in the party’s support it is unlikely they can challenge anywhere else.

 

PBP have profited from being seen as a protest vote against Sinn Fèin. While they officially designate as ‘other’ they appeal to traditional left wing republican voters who feel Sinn Fèin have not delivered effectively. They are an alternative to the left of Sinn Fèin, without the baggage of involvement in the troubles. The party can also be seen as an all-Ireland party with PBP contesting elections in the south as well, this gives them a bit of a propaganda boost over the SDLP. 

 

People Before Profit are essentially communists. Their policies come across as left wing populism, which easy to do in opposition but much more difficult to deliver with legislation. They have been criticised for not being able to provide workable alternatives to those issues they have opposed such as rates increases in Belfast. PBP will also be attacked by the nationalist parties over their anti-EU stance. 

 

They do have issues they will wish to promote however. The Northern Ireland Assembly recently voted in favour of Gerry Carroll’s amendment to a bill which would have automatically cut private rent prices by 10%. Rather embarrassingly, the assembly then voted to neuter that bill a week later, seemingly not realising what they had been voting for at the time. No doubt PBP will highlight this is the hope to attracting working class votes across the city, especially in a time of price rises in almost every sector leading to tight budgets being stretched even further. 

 

People Before Profit are unlikely to be major players in the next Assembly, but they are key in a few local battles. They have a real chance of winning 2 seats (West Belfast and Foyle) and their transfers could be vital in deciding 2 others (North Belfast and South Belfast where nationalist seats are under threat to differing degrees).  I expect party to win 2 seats, holding West Belfast, and capitalising on Sinn Fèin’s apparent woes in Foyle to make a gain. 

 

I will consider Aòntu next before considering the smaller unionist contend