Constituency Focus: East Londonderry

East Londonderry takes in much of the north coast with the main town in the constituency being Coleraine. It has traditionally had a significant student population during term time and is a popular location for summer staycations. It’s economy is boosted in the summer and the area has plenty of ‘second homes’. 

 

Current seats

The DUP currently have 2 seats, Claire Sugden holds one as an independent and the SDLP and Sinn Féin also have a seat each. The DUP’s Gregory Campbell has been the MP since 2001.

 

Current bloc quotas

Unionism’s recent high was 58.6% with a low of 49.3%. It seems like, in 2019, the bulk of Claire Sugden’s vote went to Alliance.

 

Nationalism has remained fairly steady, ranging from 35.1% to 37.3%.

 

The non-aligned bloc has ranged from 5.1% to 15.1%. Again that high score seems to have taken the bulk of Claire Sugden’s support.

 

Recent electoral trends

The DUP have remained the largest party in the constituency with the UUP being rather weak. Claire Sugen inherited David McClarty’s seat, he had stood as an independent and taken much of the UUP vote with him. Sugden will likely hold that vote again.

 

In every election since 2017 the SDLP have improved at Sinn Féin’s expense and the SDLP eventually overtook Sinn Féin at the 2019 Westminster election. Aontú have also taken some of that Sinn Féin vote.

 

Alliance did very well in the latest election, we will see how much of that is growth for the party and how much of that support belongs to Sugden this May. 

 

Candidates

There are 2 DUP candidates here, Maurice Bradley and Alan Robinson. Darryl Wilson is the UUP candidate, Jordan Armstrong is standing for the TUV and Russell Watton for the PUP. Incumbent, and former Justice Minister, Claire Sugden is defending her seat as an independent unionist. 

 

Sinn Féin have 2 candidates, Caiomhe Archibald and Kathleen McGurk. Cara Hunter is standing for the SDLP. Gemma Brolly is the Aontú candidate and Amy Merron is standing for People Before Profit. Former SDLP member, Stephanie Quigley, is standing as an independent, as is, Niall Murphy.

 

Chris McCaw is the Alliance candidate and Mark Coulson will represent the Greens. There is also another independent called Billy Stewart who I can find no reliable information on. 

 

Battles

East Londonderry takes in an area that is strong for the TUV and so they will be targeting the vulnerable second DUP seat. The UUP are probably too far behind to win it but their transfers may prove decisive. 

 



Nationalism has 2 quotas but the bloc may actually face a loss here. Sinn Féin’s vote has been slipping for a while and I am surprised they have selected 2 candidates. The packed Nationalist field may cause problems as transfers can be a bit wild. Alliance may fancy their chances at a gain here, and it may not come from Sugden but from a nationalist.

 

The Sinn Féin – SDLP battle will be interesting. Part of the SDLP’s growth seems to be due to having a popular candidate in Cara Hunter. In the end, it may not be a battle for a seat as nationalism should have enough to hold both. 

 

Alliance’s biggest threat to winning a seat is incumbent Claire Sugden. Sugden is a Unionist but has always been a liberal. If she wins again it may send a message to Unionism that there is indeed hope of winning back voters from Alliance by finding the right candidates to stand in that political space. 

 

Polling

Sinn Féin and Alliance will be feeling confident based on polling but this is one are where local factors may play against polling. Caire Sugden should be comfortable costing Alliance votes and Sinn Féin will struggle to win voters back from the SDLP and Aontú.

 

Issues

Student issues are important here, it is likely that many courses will move out of Coleraine in the coming years. Tourism is also important for the constituency, no doubt many will be relieved that Barry’s will be reopening, but, perhaps more can be done to reduce the area’s reliance on seasonal economic boosts. 

 

Predictions 

I think the TUV have a good chance here, I expect them to win one of the DUP seats with Sugden holding her seat. I expect both Nationalist seats are also safe and it may prove a frustrating day for Alliance. 

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