Constituency Focus: South Antrim



South Antrim takes in parts of the Belfast suburbs in Newtownabbey and stretches to just beyond Antrim town. It is an interesting mix of rural and suburban and will likely continue to see significant population growth in the next decade. 

 

Current seats

The DUP currently have 2 seats with 1 each for the UUP, Alliance and Sinn Féin. Paul Girvan (not to be confused with party colleague and former First Minister Paul Givan!) of the DUP is MP for the area. 

 

Current bloc quotas

Unionism has ranged from 53.4% to 69%, all comfortably in 3 seat territory. Surprisingly that low was not the most recent Westminster election, rather the 2019 council elections. 

 

Nationalism has ranged from a low of 16.7% (just hovering around a quota) to a high of 25.8%. This vote share has declined in every election since 2017. 

 

The non-aligned bloc’s recent low was 7.4% with a recent high of 19.1%. 

 

Recent electoral trends

The DUP have remained ahead of the UUP in this election cycle following the UUP’s victory in the 2015 Westminster election. Other Unionists have failed to make an impact. The Nationalist vote has been declining from the high of 2017, it is likely levelling off to pre 2017 numbers but the bloc may dip a bit further with Alliance gaining. I expect Nationalism should have a quota however. Neil Kelly of Alliance topped the poll in the Antrim DEA in 2019’s council election, had Alliance ran with 2 candidates they would have won 2 seats comfortably. Alliance have been improving but find themselves in a frustrating position here of doing well but nowhere near well enough to win 2 seats. Their transfers could be important. 

 

Candidates

The DUP are defending their 2 seats with Pam Cameron and Trevor Clarke. The UUP also have 2 candidates with former leader Steve Aiken hoping to bring Paul Michael along with him. Mel Lucas is standing for the TUV. 

 

Declan Kearny is defending his seat for Sinn Féin and Roisin Lynch is standing for the SDLP. Roisin Bennett is the Aontú candidate while Jerry Maguire is standing for People Before Profit. 

 

John Blair is the Alliance candidate and Lesley Veronica is standing for the Green Party. 

 

Battles

There are no battles between the blocs here, one bloc would have to have their worst day ever to lose a seat. The big battle will be between the competing Unionists for the second DUP seat. Alliance will hope to continue eating into the vote share of the other 2 blocs but a gain is impossible here, they only have 1 candidate. The Greens will likely be too far behind to benefit from Alliance transfers, if they do manage to have a surplus. 

 

Issues

Belfast International Airport was in the news recently for the wrong reasons, it is a key employer for the area and MLAs may do well here if they can assure voters that they can ensure more routes operating out of Aldergrove. There are several areas of population growth, but there is still demand for housing.

 

Predictions 

This may be the most boring constituency on count day. I expect it to finish as it begins; 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Sinn Féin. I just can’t see anybody else getting close enough to the 2 DUP runners unless the non-aligned bloc transfers at unprecedented rates to the UUP. 

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