Who wins a border poll?

We are being spoiled with polling data this week. In addition to polling who people will vote for on 5th May, Liverpool University also decided to poll how people viewed the constitutional question. 

 

You can see the results of the 4 key questions on the border below.

 

Would you vote for a United Ireland tomorrow?

 


 

Would you vote for a United Ireland in 15-20 years?

 

 


 

Would you vote for a United Ireland if it meant paying higher taxes?

 



 

Would you vote for a United Ireland if it meant having to pay a fee for the healthcare services currently provided by the NHS?

 

 


 


The results show no noticeable increase in support for a United Ireland. In fact support seems to be falling away slightly since the immediate post Brexit vote high point. There is a significant number of don’t knows who presumably could be persuaded one way or the other. The interesting thing is the consistently high number of people who did not express a preference one way or another. My reading of this is that many people simply do not care about constitutional politics right now and want our politicians to focus more on every day issues, especially in a cost of living crisis.

 

It may not work put exactly like this, but the percentage of those who did not express an opinion either way is very close to the number saying they would vote for non-aligned parties in May.

 

Remarkably Michelle O’Neill stated that ‘people are not waking up and thinking about Irish Unity’. It is almost like living in a parallel universe to hear a Sinn Féin leader not prioritise their aim of securing a border poll. Perhaps it is an acceptance that constitutional change is not a priority for most people, or perhaps it is an attempt to secure more transfers in May by being seen to focus on the cost of living crisis. 

 

This poll has not told us anything new but reaffirms what we have known for a while. There is a solid core of people who wish to see a United Ireland but may be put off by the political realities of a higher cost of living a greater tax burden. The plurality of people in favour on maintaining the status quo reflects changing demographics, but we can no longer assume that because someone votes for a nationalist party that they wish to see a United Ireland immediately or even within the foreseeable future. 

 

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