NI Westminster seats under STV

The Labour Party recently voted in favour of Proportional Representation for UK General Elections. The Labour Party currently has a huge lead in opinion polling and if an election were held today, they would win a majority. Those of you in favour of PR and electoral reform for general elections should not get too excited though, Labour promised PR in its 1997 election manifesto. They won a majority, were in power for 13 years and won 3 consecutive general elections, yet electoral reform did not materialise. 

 

The First Past the Post system that is currently used favours the larger parties and often results in a 2 party system. The UK has been strange as we have regularly had a larger third party along with our regional parties represented in Parliament. The upside to FPTP is that it generally makes it impossible for those on the extremes to get into power and pushes the parties of the left and right towards the centre. It does cause issues though, many people vote against their least favourite candidate rather than for their favourite and, most of the time, a party can win a clear majority of seats without being close to a clear majority of votes.

 

So Labour has backed PR, but not said which version of PR. The current systems used in the UK already are STV, which we use in Northern Ireland for elections to the Stormont Assembly and local councils, and Mixed Member PR which is sued in Scotland and Wales for their devolved administrations. I imagine Labour would propose MMP as it is already familiar to those in Scotland and Wales and, voters in England will already be familiar with the party list system which was used to elect MEPs prior to Brexit.

 

So would PR cause there to be a major difference in who represents Northern Ireland at Westminster? It would not be revolutionary, but there would be notable change. I have taken the results of the 2022 Assembly Election and worked out how this would translate to our 18 Westminster seats if STV was used. I haven’t looked at the last Westminster election because many parties stepped aside in certain areas and, voters voted tactically. For example, Belfast North had only 3 candidates and neither the DUP nor Sinn Féin came close to their 2019 tallies in May.

 

The Labour Party recently voted in favour of Proportional Representation for UK General Elections. The Labour Party currently has a huge lead in opinion polling and if an election were held today, they would win a majority. Those of you in favour of PR and electoral reform for general elections should not get too excited though, Labour promised PR in its 1997 election manifesto. They won a majority, were in power for 13 years and won 3 consecutive general elections, yet electoral reform did not materialise. 

 

The First Past the Post system that is currently used favours the larger parties and often results in a 2 party system. The UK has been strange as we have regularly had a larger third party along with our regional parties represented in Parliament. The upside to FPTP is that it generally makes it impossible for those on the extremes to get into power and pushes the parties of the left and right towards the centre. It does cause issues though, many people vote against their least favourite candidate rather than for their favourite and, most of the time, a party can win a clear majority of seats without being close to a clear majority of votes.

 

So Labour has backed PR, but not said which version of PR. The current systems used in the UK already are STV, which we use in Northern Ireland for elections to the Stormont Assembly and local councils, and Mixed Member PR which is sued in Scotland and Wales for their devolved administrations. I imagine Labour would propose MMP as it is already familiar to those in Scotland and Wales and, voters in England will already be familiar with the party list system which was used to elect MEPs prior to Brexit.

 

So would PR cause there to be a major difference in who represents Northern Ireland at Westminster? It would not be revolutionary, but there would be notable change. I have taken the results of the 2022 Assembly Election and worked out how this would translate to our 18 Westminster seats if STV was used. I haven’t looked at the last Westminster election because many parties stepped aside in certain areas and, voters voted tactically. For example, Belfast North had only 3 candidates and neither the DUP nor Sinn Féin came close to their 2019 tallies in May.

 

The Labour Party recently voted in favour of Proportional Representation for UK General Elections. The Labour Party currently has a huge lead in opinion polling and if an election were held today, they would win a majority. Those of you in favour of PR and electoral reform for general elections should not get too excited though, Labour promised PR in its 1997 election manifesto. They won a majority, were in power for 13 years and won 3 consecutive general elections, yet electoral reform did not materialise. 

 

The First Past the Post system that is currently used favours the larger parties and often results in a 2 party system. The UK has been strange as we have regularly had a larger third party along with our regional parties represented in Parliament. The upside to FPTP is that it generally makes it impossible for those on the extremes to get into power and pushes the parties of the left and right towards the centre. It does cause issues though, many people vote against their least favourite candidate rather than for their favourite and, most of the time, a party can win a clear majority of seats without being close to a clear majority of votes.

 

So Labour has backed PR, but not said which version of PR. The current systems used in the UK already are STV, which we use in Northern Ireland for elections to the Stormont Assembly and local councils, and Mixed Member PR which is sued in Scotland and Wales for their devolved administrations. I imagine Labour would propose MMP as it is already familiar to those in Scotland and Wales and, voters in England will already be familiar with the party list system which was used to elect MEPs prior to Brexit.

 

So would PR cause there to be a major difference in who represents Northern Ireland at Westminster? It would not be revolutionary, but there would be notable change. I have taken the results of the 2022 Assembly Election and worked out how this would translate to our 18 Westminster seats if STV was used. I haven’t looked at the last Westminster election because many parties stepped aside in certain areas and, voters voted tactically. For example, Belfast North had only 3 candidates and neither the DUP nor Sinn Féin came close to their 2019 tallies in May.

 

 

As expected the smaller parties do make gains, but the DUP and Sinn Féin remain dominant. For these hypothetical constituencies I have grouped together the current constituencies in a way that makes sense to me. Belfast contains the 4 Belfast seats, North is made up from; East Antrim, South Antrim, North Antrim and, East Londonderry. West takes in; Foyle, West Tyrone, Mid Tyrone and, Fermanagh and South Tyrone. South takes in; Upper Bann, South Down and, Newry and Armagh while East is made up from; Strangford, North Down and, Lagan Valley.

 

In reality the constituencies would be completely redrawn but this is the easiest way to show how things may be different. In a proportional system you should be able to draw the boundaries anywhere and end up with the same result, it is rare a result would change from boundaries being changed. 

 

You can see from the tables below the total votes each party received in the areas, the quota that would go with these new super sized constituencies and the likely winners of each seat. It is worth noting that Alliance would be very close to a third seat here, at the expense of the DUP in ‘North’, though after transfers the DUP would have just edged it. There is no doubt about the other 17 seats. 

 

 

I am not clever enough, nor do I have enough time, to consider how things would go if we used the MMP system in Northern Ireland, but I would be shocked if it resulted in anything radically different to the above.

 

In the UK as a whole, I would expect the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP to lose a lot of seats with the Lib Dems being the big winner. Smaller parties such as the Greens, Reform and possibly even independents would also win quite a few seats, probably in the double digits for the Greens and Reform. It would lead to parties needing to work together to form a government, which could take a while, but in theory, should be more representative of public opinion. 

 

In countries where PR has been used for a while, parties form blocs. In Sweden for the example the Socialist Party increased its seat tally and won the most votes, but the right wing bloc won more seats meaning the Socialist Party, and its allies on the left, lost power. It has also allowed a right wing populist party to become the largest party of the governing bloc, something which FPTP usually prevents. 

 

As expected the smaller parties do make gains, but the DUP and Sinn Féin remain dominant. For these hypothetical constituencies I have grouped together the current constituencies in a way that makes sense to me. Belfast contains the 4 Belfast seats, North is made up from; East Antrim, South Antrim, North Antrim and, East Londonderry. West takes in; Foyle, West Tyrone, Mid Tyrone and, Fermanagh and South Tyrone. South takes in; Upper Bann, South Down and, Newry and Armagh while East is made up from; Strangford, North Down and, Lagan Valley.

 

In reality the constituencies would be completely redrawn but this is the easiest way to show how things may be different. In a proportional system you should be able to draw the boundaries anywhere and end up with the same result, it is rare a result would change from boundaries being changed. 

 

You can see from the tables below the total votes each party received in the areas, the quota that would go with these new super sized constituencies and the likely winners of each seat. It is worth noting that Alliance would be very close to a third seat here, at the expense of the DUP in ‘North’, though after transfers the DUP would have just edged it. There is no doubt about the other 17 seats. 

 

Tables

 

I am not clever enough, nor do I have enough time, to consider how things would go if we used the MMP system in Northern Ireland, but I would be shocked if it resulted in anything radically different to the above.

 

In the UK as a whole, I would expect the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP to lose a lot of seats with the Lib Dems being the big winner. Smaller parties such as the Greens, Reform and possibly even independents would also win quite a few seats, probably in the double digits for the Greens and Reform. It would lead to parties needing to work together to form a government, which could take a while, but in theory, should be more representative of public opinion. 

 

In countries where PR has been used for a while, parties form blocs. In Sweden for the example the Socialist Party increased its seat tally and won the most votes, but the right wing bloc won more seats meaning the Socialist Party, and its allies on the left, lost power. It has also allowed a right wing populist party to become the largest party of the governing bloc, something which FPTP usually prevents. 

 

As expected the smaller parties do make gains, but the DUP and Sinn Féin remain dominant. For these hypothetical constituencies I have grouped together the current constituencies in a way that makes sense to me. Belfast contains the 4 Belfast seats, North is made up from; East Antrim, South Antrim, North Antrim and, East Londonderry. West takes in; Foyle, West Tyrone, Mid Tyrone and, Fermanagh and South Tyrone. South takes in; Upper Bann, South Down and, Newry and Armagh while East is made up from; Strangford, North Down and, Lagan Valley.

 

In reality the constituencies would be completely redrawn but this is the easiest way to show how things may be different. In a proportional system you should be able to draw the boundaries anywhere and end up with the same result, it is rare a result would change from boundaries being changed. 

 

You can see from the tables below the total votes each party received in the areas, the quota that would go with these new super sized constituencies and the likely winners of each seat. It is worth noting that Alliance would be very close to a third seat here, at the expense of the DUP in ‘North’, though after transfers the DUP would have just edged it. There is no doubt about the other 17 seats. 

 

Tables

 

I am not clever enough, nor do I have enough time, to consider how things would go if we used the MMP system in Northern Ireland, but I would be shocked if it resulted in anything radically different to the above.

 

In the UK as a whole, I would expect the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP to lose a lot of seats with the Lib Dems being the big winner. Smaller parties such as the Greens, Reform and possibly even independents would also win quite a few seats, probably in the double digits for the Greens and Reform. It would lead to parties needing to work together to form a government, which could take a while, but in theory, should be more representative of public opinion. 

 

In countries where PR has been used for a while, parties form blocs. In Sweden for the example the Socialist Party increased its seat tally and won the most votes, but the right wing bloc won more seats meaning the Socialist Party, and its allies on the left, lost power. It has also allowed a right wing populist party to become the largest party of the governing bloc, something which FPTP usually prevents.