NI Pols

Poll Update   LucidTalk released the results of its most recent poll this week. You can see the results below.   Sinn Féin will be very happy to see this. They have broken the 25% barrier that seemed to be their ceiling in recent polling. The SDLP will be rather dismayed by this as Sinn Féin growing with the SDLP languishing in 5 th place is bad news for nationalism’s smaller party. There are a few vulnerable nationalist seats in this election and this poll suggests that those that fall will be those currently held by the SDLP.   On the Unionist side the DUP has eaten into some of the TUV support, but not by much. The UUP’s growth seems to have halted with Alliance pulling ahead of them. Perhaps the UUP’s stance on the NI protocol is not strong enough for unionists and not pro-EU enough for those attracted to Alliance.    The overall ‘other’ vote would be up and on par with the most recent Westminster election. The Greens are struggling to make inroads according...

 There have always been smaller unionist parties and unionist independents seeking election in Northern Ireland. Much more so than on the nationalist side, although that is beginning to change. This upcoming election will see the PUP and two high profile unionist independents seek election. Why does the PUP not get its own piece like Aontú or People Before Peofit? To put it bluntly, I do not expect them to be in contention for any seats. The party has lost 2 high profile members in Belfast in the last year. Julie Anne Corr-Johnston, former councillor for Oldpark, and John Kyle, councillor for Titanic, have both joined the UUP.  Corr-Johnston polled well in 2017. She finished just a few hundred votes short of the UUP candidate, though still well behind the 3 DUP runners. She is likely to poll well in North Belfast again, but her success may come at the expense of the PUP. John Kyle is not contesting the upcoming election and the PUP are yet to announce if they will contest East...

 DUP co-options The DUP recently co-opted Lagan Valley MLA, and former leader, Edwin Poots to fill the South Belfast seat left vacant after the passing of Christopher Stalford. Poots will likely contest South Belfast in May. Paul Rankin was then co-opted into the vacant Lagan Valley seat. It was odd that Jeffrey Donaldson did not co-opt himself into the seat. This may have allowed the Lagan Valley by-election to occur on the same day causing rivals candidates for choose to stand in just one of the elections. This may suggest the DUP is not particularly confident in holding both seats in Lagan Valley and they have confirmed they will only field 2 candidates.  Retirements Two DUP MLAs have also announced they are standing down at the election. George Robinson will retire after many years of service in East Londonderry. DUP deputy leader Paula Bradley also announced she will be stepping down as an MLA in order to care for her elderly parents. That means both DUP MLAs for North Be...

Aontú is an even more difficult party than People Before Profit to discuss. We at least have the control aspect of PBP holding 1 seat and having held another seat previously. Aontú have not yet contested an Assembly Election and so far have only contested some local government and Westminster seats. Aontú, as a party, is still largely an unknown entity for many in Northern Ireland. The party was formed by Peader Tóibín when Sinn Féin decided to campaign in favour of legalising abortion in the Republic of Ireland. As such, many see Aontú as essentially Sinn Féin except they are solidly anti-abortion. With Sinn Féin and, to a lesser degree, the SDLP moving towards a pro-abortion position, Aontú could present themselves as a republican alternative for those who feel strongly about the issue. Perhaps they will seek to attract a socially conservative Catholic vote. There is no doubt that a vote for Aontú should be seen as a vote against Northern Ireland’s now very liberal abortion laws, pre...

It is difficult to analyse PBP’s vote share in recent elections. They only field candidates in a few constituencies and they are polling at around 2% consistently. In recent years they have posed a threat to Sinn Fèin in these constituencies so I will explore how likely this is again.   PBP added councillors in Belfast in the 2019 council elections. One of those gains was in the Oldpark DEA of North Belfast. That gain actually came from the PUP but the nature of the win was interesting. The SDLP only fielded one candidate but he won enough votes to elect 2 people with good balancing. PBP benefitted from the transfers and were able to pull ahead of the remaining unionist candidates. This sort of luck is rare but it has perhaps helped the party to raise the profile of another candidate.   PBP’s sole MLA is Gerry Carroll in West Belfast. He won his seat in 2016 from Sinn Fèin and it seems to be a safe seat. Eamon McCann also won a seat in Foyle in 2016 but fell a year later when ...

  The TUV was formed after Jim Allister left the DUP in protest over the St. Andrews agreement. During it’s entire existence it has been seen as a one man band with the party’s fortunes being centred around the popularity of Jim Allister. The TUV has won some council seats across Northern Ireland in the past but have never managed to get anyone other than the leader elected to Stormont.    The TUV will be appealing to disaffected DUP voters and will hope to scoop up the remains of the relatively small UKIP vote in the east of the province. The plan seems to be a relatively simple one of pointing out that the existing unionists at Stormont, Jim Allister aside, have failed to deliver anything for unionism and indeed have misrepresented unionism so badly that the Northern Ireland Protocol was signed off. The TUV want the protocol scrapped in its entirety and will hope that anti-protocol sentiment will win them votes.    The last election cycle was not good for the ...

While the campaign has not yet officially started the parties are in election mode already. Candidates are being announced, issues are being raised and politicians will be showing up to more and more photoshoots over the next few weeks. So, has anything interesting happened over in the last few weeks?   O’Neill vs. Catney Michelle O’Neill tweeted a video claiming that Sinn Fèin were working on bringing forward a bill to tackle period poverty and ensure free sanitary products for women. A valiant cause, except, Sinn Fèin have not been the driving force behind it. Instead Lagan Valley MLA Pat Catney of the SDLP has spent the last 18 months driving the issue forward and ensuring that the legislation is good to go. The tweet and video have since been deleted, but not before this point was made on Twitter for many to see.   Alliance conference The Alliance Party held its first in person conference since 2019. There was nothing out of the ordinary announced but the party took the ch...

Alliance is one of the most interesting parties to consider when looking towards May’s Assembly election. Having struggled in 2016, they bounced back with 9.1% of the vote in 2017 and were within a few hundred votes of adding 2 additional seats. The last election cycle has seen the party reach a high of 18.5% in the European election of 2019 and hit a low of 7.9% in the 2017 Westminster election. Alliance will be pleased that since that low their vote has increased steadily hitting 11.5% in the council elections and 16.8% in the 2019 Westminster election.    Alliance had a poor result in 2016, but since the collapse of the Assembly the party has been on an upward trend. Polling suggests they may have plateaued with the 18.5% achieved by Naomi Long in the 2019 European election. It was followed up by a strong 16.8 in the Westminster of 2019 but can they hit those highs again this year?   Polling has suggested the Alliance vote is holding steady, but Liverpool University ha...

The SDLP has bounced between 11% and 14.9% in the last election cycle. That 14.9% is a real outlier due to the nature of the 2019 Westminster election. The SDLP stepped aside in 3 seats, of which only North Belfast brings any significant number of votes. On the other hand they benefitted from tactical voting in South Belfast by more than doubling their 2017 Westminster tally and more than trebling their 2017 Assembly tally. This was thanks to Sinn Fèin, the Green Party and some smaller parties standing aside and backing the pro-remain Claire Hanna. Colum Eastwood also delivered a huge result in Foyle as he won around 8,000 votes from Sinn Fèin. For context 1% of the vote across Northern Ireland was around 8,000 votes.   Recent polling has placed the SDLP support between 10-12%. This doesn’t look good as not only are they failing to make inroads into Sinn Féin’s support but they are also leaking support to non-aligned parties. The most recent Liverpool University poll was horrible f...