NI Pols

  You can see the results of the poll here, for the larger parties it is not too different to the Liverpool University poll we saw last month. The big difference is the TUV score holding at 9% which is significantly more than the Liverpool University poll.   Overall Unionism is up 2 points on the last LucidTalk poll with Nationalim and Others down a point each.    Interesting trends: ·        Nationalism has lost ground to Alliance and the Greens ·        Alliance has lost ground to the UUP ·        The DUP has consolidated a little but remains well short of Sinn Féin ·        The poll suggests Aontú will not hurt Sinn Féin   What will the parties think? ·        The DUP will be frustrated that they have not improved beyond 20% ·        The TUV will be very encouraged their vote is holding ·        The SDLP look in a bad place with just 10% and a slip in the overall nationalist vote ·        Alliance have slipped but will still be very happy with at least 5 gains very likely.    The pr

  I am not telling you who to vote for! I just want you to understand how to make the most of your vote in the STV system we use in Northern Ireland.   I have heard people talking about tactical voting and asking what the best way to vote is. In short tactical voting should not be your primary concern here, this is not a Westminster election where we may find ourselves voting against our least favourite candidate rather than voting for our favourite. In this election vote for your favourite and then transfer to your next and so on. You can give every candidate a preference if you wish or stop at your first vote but you have a chance to have a big say. My advice is to keep transferring until you feel all the other candidates are as bad as each other.    How do transfers work? After all of the valid votes are counted we can work out a quota. This is taken by dividing the total number of valid votes by one more than the number of seats available and then adding 1. So if there are 60,000 v

South Antrim takes in parts of the Belfast suburbs in Newtownabbey and stretches to just beyond Antrim town. It is an interesting mix of rural and suburban and will likely continue to see significant population growth in the next decade.    Current seats The DUP currently have 2 seats with 1 each for the UUP, Alliance and Sinn Féin. Paul Girvan (not to be confused with party colleague and former First Minister Paul Givan!) of the DUP is MP for the area.    Current bloc quotas Unionism has ranged from 53.4% to 69%, all comfortably in 3 seat territory. Surprisingly that low was not the most recent Westminster election, rather the 2019 council elections.    Nationalism has ranged from a low of 16.7% (just hovering around a quota) to a high of 25.8%. This vote share has declined in every election since 2017.    The non-aligned bloc’s recent low was 7.4% with a recent high of 19.1%.    Recent electoral trends The DUP have remained ahead of the UUP in this election cycle following the UUP’s

East Antrim has been prominent in discussion around Brexit following the introduction of the Irish Sea border. The constituency is centred around Larne and Carrickfergus but also takes in parts of Newtownabbey and stretches along the coast road beyond Glenarm. It is a very Protestant constituency with most of the Catholic population being in the north of the constituency.   Current seats The DUP and UUP both have 2 seats each with Alliance holding the other seat. It is the only constituency where the UUP have more than one seat. The MP for the area is the DUP’s Sammy Wilson.   Current bloc quotas Unionism has ranged from a low share of 59.4% to a high share of 70.1%.    Nationalism has gone from 7.7% to 14%. There was a significant drop between 2017 and 2019, perhaps Alliance have been successful at swaying Nationalist voters.    The non aligned bloc has ranged from 15.6% to 29.1%. That latter score was in the most recent Westminster election and if replicated in May would probably giv

North Antrim is traditional DUP heartland, though the party only hold 2 Assembly seats currently. The constituency takes in some of the north and east coast and includes Rathlin island. Ballymena is the largest town in the constituency. North Antrim was where the DUP won their first parliamentary seat and it’s been held by a Paisley ever since.    Current seats The DUP hold 2 seats here with the TUV, UUP and Sinn Féin holding one each. The DUP’s Ian Paisley is the MP for the area having won the seat after his father retired.    Current bloc quotas Unionism is exceptionally strong here with a recent low vote share of 64.1% and a high of 72.9%. That low was a council election with independents whose constitutional preference I cannot confirm. It is likely there were some unionists among them.   Nationalism has ranged from 19.4% to 23.1%. The low score was in 2019 with the following election seeing the bloc improve to just 19.5%. Despite that being a a comfortable quota it may show Nation

East Londonderry takes in much of the north coast with the main town in the constituency being Coleraine. It has traditionally had a significant student population during term time and is a popular location for summer staycations. It’s economy is boosted in the summer and the area has plenty of ‘second homes’.    Current seats The DUP currently have 2 seats, Claire Sugden holds one as an independent and the SDLP and Sinn Féin also have a seat each. The DUP’s Gregory Campbell has been the MP since 2001.   Current bloc quotas Unionism’s recent high was 58.6% with a low of 49.3%. It seems like, in 2019, the bulk of Claire Sugden’s vote went to Alliance.   Nationalism has remained fairly steady, ranging from 35.1% to 37.3%.   The non-aligned bloc has ranged from 5.1% to 15.1%. Again that high score seems to have taken the bulk of Claire Sugden’s support.   Recent electoral trends The DUP have remained the largest party in the constituency with the UUP being rather weak. Claire Sugen inheri

Foyle is the SDLP’s strongest constituency and has historically been the base of the party, being the city of John Hume of course. While it was the centre of some of the worst times at the beginning of the Troubles community relations have improved in recent years with the Apprentice Boys parades passing off peacefully regularly. The constituency has seen a rise in dissident republican violence during recent years with Lyra McKee tragically killed while reporting on a riot just 3 years ago. The Derry Girls tv show has served to shine a positive light on the city.    Current seats The SDLP and Sinn Féin both hold 2 seats each. The final seat is held by the DUP. SDLP leader Colum Eastwood is the constituency’s MP.    Current bloc quotas Nationalism is remarkable strong in Foyle with results ranging from 68.4% to 82.5%. It makes 5 seats a real possibility.    Unionism has ranged from 12.4% to 17.3%. That low score was the latest Westminster election when the SDLP regained the seat from Si

West Tyrone has generally been regarded as a more ‘conservative’ constituency and while it may look like this has not played out much in elections it can be important for candidate selection. West Tyrone is a nationalist majority constituency but elected a UUP MP as recently as 1997 due to an almost 50-50 nationalist split in the vote. It is a rural constituency and its largest towns are Omagh and Strabane.   Current seats Sinn Féin currently have 3 seats with a seat each for the SDP and DUP. The MP for the area is Órlaith Begley of Sinn Féin.   Current bloc quotas Nationalism has ranged from a low of 52.6% to a high of 63.7%.   Unionism’s recent low was 28.7% (with Alliance making inroads) to a high of 32.1% (still under 2 quoats).   The non aligned bloc has ranged from a low of 2.3% to a high of 9.7%. The growth of the non aligned bloc has caused Nationalism to fall beneath 60% and Unionism to fall beneath 30%. Slightly more of the growth has come at a loss to Nationalism.    Recent

  Mid Ulster is another Sinn Féin heartland and is the seat of the party's NI leader Michelle O’Neill. The constituency looks a bit weird on a map, it takes in east Tyrone  and stretches from just north of Dungannon in the south to Magherafelt in the north.    Current seats Sinn Féin have 3 seats and won them all easily last time around. The SDLP and DUP have a seat each. Francie Molloy of Sinn Féin is the MP for the area.    Current bloc quotas Nationalism’s recent high was 65.7% in the last Assembly election with a low of 60.2% in the most recent Westminster Election. That tally has declined slightly in every election since 2017.    Unionism has ranged from 30.4% to 33.4% ( the latter just hovering around 2 quotas). Both of these results came in Westminster elections.   The other bloc has ranged from just 0.7% in a divisive Wetsminster election to 7.9% in the most recent Westminster election. More of that growth has come at the expense of Nationalism than Unionism.    Recent elec

Fermanagh & South Tyrone is known for having consistently high turnouts in elections. It can be argued that the constituency’s election of Bobby Sands was a catalyst for Sinn Féin entering electoral politics. Nationalism has had a slight advantage over Unionism but turnout is very important here, which perhaps leads to high turnouts. The most recent Westminster election results have come down to just a handful of votes between Sinn Fein and the UUP.    Current seats Sinn Féin currently hold 3 seats having split their vote perfectly and capitalised on a wave of enthusiasm for the party in 2017 to prevent the SDLP from winning. The DUP and UUP have one seat each. Michelle Gildernew of Sinn Féin is the area’s MP.   Current bloc quotas Nationalism posted a low in 2019 of 43.1% and a high of 52% in 2017’s General Election. The local election results may be skewed with several independent candidates whose constitutional affiliation I do not know standing, but if we do ignore this low the